STATEN ISLAND, N.Y. — Democrat Zohran Mamdani continues to lead New York City’s mayoral race with 46% support in the wake of Mayor Eric Adams’ withdrawal from the race, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll which dropped Wednesday.

Independent candidate Andrew Cuomo, however, has made some noteworthy gains, climbing to 33% support citywide — pulling ahead of Mamdani on Staten Island.

While Mamdani maintains a double-digit lead across the five boroughs, the poll reveals several differences. On Staten Island, Cuomo leads with 44% of the vote, compared to Mamdani’s 29% and Republican Curtis Sliwa’s 22%. This marks Cuomo’s best performance in any borough — and Mamdani’s worst — contrasting how his campaign is being perceived across the city.

The survey of 1,015 likely voters was conducted October 3–7 and carries a margin of error of +3.9 percentage points.

In the previous Quinnipiac poll conducted Sept. 10, Mamdani had the edge with 45%, with Cuomo trailing at 23%. These new numbers show Cuomo picking up much of Adams’ former support — a trend most clearly visible on Staten Island.

“The numbers changed but the contours of the race haven’t. Andrew Cuomo picked up the bulk of Adams’ supporters cutting into Zohran Mamdani’s lead, but Mamdani’s frontrunner status by double digits stays intact,” said Quinnipiac University Poll Assistant Director Mary Snow.

Mamdani continues to gain support from younger voters — 62% among 18–34-year-olds; Asian American voters 67%; and religiously-unaffiliated voters at 69%. He leads among Democrats citywide with 60% support.

However, Staten Island remains an exception. Voter enthusiasm for Mamdani here is weaker, and his favorability ratings dip compared to his citywide numbers. According to the poll, only 31% of Staten Island voters view Mamdani favorably, compared to 47% unfavorable — a contrast to his overall 43–35% percent favorability citywide.

Cuomo, in the meantime, sees an improvement in his image on Staten Island, where his favorability rating rises above his citywide average of 37%.

Mamdani leads on key progressive issues, such as lowering housing costs (48% citywide) and managing public schools (41%). But Cuomo holds an advantage on economic growth, where 41% of voters say he’d be most effective, compared to Mamdani’s 35% — with an even wider margin on Staten Island.

On the question of who would better represent New York City under a second Trump presidency, voters are pretty much evenly split — 35% say Mamdani to 34% Cuomo — but Staten Island once again leans Cuomo.

The Israel-Hamas conflict has become a political minefield in the race. While Mamdani leads citywide on the question of who shares voters’ views on the conflict, with 41%, Cuomo gains more ground on Staten Island, where Mamdani’s more harder stance — including his pledge to arrest Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu under an ICC warrant — is met with opposition.

Overall, 43% of citywide voters oppose Mamdani’s pledge, compared to 38% who support it. On Staten Island, opposition spikes to 58%.

Despite Cuomo’s strength on Staten Island, Mamdani remains the clear citywide frontrunner — at least for now. But the poll shows a divide between the boroughs and the progressive base that pushed Mamdani to the top of the field.

Were Cuomo to continue capturing support, specifically in places where Mamdani is underperforming, the race could tighten further as we barrel toward Election Day.

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