What will winter 2025 bring to NYC? NOAA, almanacs disagree

NEW YORK CITY – A battle is brewing between the long-range winter outlooks for the upcoming winter season in the New York City area.

JUMP TO: NOAA l FARMER’S ALMANAC l OLD FARMER’S ALMANAC l NICK GREGORY

NOAA released its annual winter outlook last week. Meanwhile, both of the almanacs say they use their own proprietary, and secret, formulas to come up with their long-range forecasts. But this year, the forecasts they predicted are nearly the polar opposite. FOX 5 NY’s Nick Gregory also has a winter prediction of his own.

NEW YORK, NEW YORK – DECEMBER 21: People walk over the Gapstow Bridge as snow falls in Central Park on December 21, 2024 in New York City. (Photo by Craig T Fruchtman/Getty Images) 

“Get ready to ‘chill, snow, repeat,’” The Farmers’ Almanac says. 

What we know:

NOAA uses a mix of long-range climate computer models and atmospheric trends, such as the arrival of La Niña, to base its long-range outlooks.

With that, NOAA anticipates a bone-chilling winter for the northern tier and Upper Midwest, meaning the winter could be even more frigid than usual.  

NOAA’s seasonal precipitation outlook for December 2025 to February 2026. (FOX Weather)

“This set of conditions does slightly elevate the potential for colder temperatures in the central and eastern U.S., so also supports favored below-normal temperatures in the Upper Midwest,” NOAA forecasters said.

The Farmers’ Almanac, created in 1818, says the winter season calls for “dramatic swings and widespread winter weather.”

The Farmers’ Almanac 2025-26 winter outlook. (FOX Weather)

It’s expected that the northern Plains to New England will experience the coldest temperatures. Residents on the East Coast should also expect significant rain mixed with snow.

Unlike NOAA and The Farmers’ Almanac, the Old Farmer’s Almanac, established in 1792, says it will be a calmer, gentler winter. 

Temperatures are expected to be slightly milder across the country with extended dry stretches. But the Almanac says some regions should “brace for a sharper chill.”

Old Farmer’s Almanac 2025-26 winter outlook. (Old Farmer’s Almanac)

“Don’t lose track of your snow shovels and umbrellas,” says Editor Carol Connare. “Most areas will experience near-normal to slightly milder temperatures, but from the Appalachians south through the Southeast and Florida, and westward across the Ohio Valley, we’re predicting a colder-than-normal winter.”

Gregory’s early call for a winter forecast – it looks like a weak La Niña, which means it’s going to be milder than average weather with a colder first part of the winter. It also means it will be harder to predict its impacts.

How much snow is expected this winter?

“Certainly, I think we’ll have more snow in the recent years, probably a little closer to average,” Gregory says, with the average being 28 inches.

Winter Weather