N.Y. weather: NYC snow forecast ranges from 6 to 18 inches; possible shift to mix remains uncertain

STATEN ISLAND, N.Y. — Although most forecasters agree that New York City will see at least 6 inches of snow this weekend, how much more depends on the storm’s track, according to meteorologists.

The National Weather Service is projecting anywhere from 6 to 18 inches, while AccuWeather’s forecast is more conservative, calling for 6 to 8 inches, with a possible changeover to a wintry mix.

Forecasters warned of significant snowfall, dangerous cold and potentially severe travel disruptions extending well beyond the Tri‑State area.

Snow is projected to begin late Saturday night into early Sunday, with most of the heaviest accumulation falling Sunday afternoon through Sunday night, according to National Weather Service meteorologist Rich Bann.

[Key Messages]: A significant winter storm is likely late Saturday night into Monday. Snow may begin late Saturday night with the heaviest snow likely falling Sunday into a portion of Sunday evening. Considerable disruption to transportation and daily life is possible. pic.twitter.com/dwRfGcvbxv

— NWS New York NY (@NWSNewYorkNY) January 22, 2026

Meteorologists say totals will vary depending on the storm track and temperature shifts across the region.

The broader range in accumulation predictions reflects uncertainty over whether the city experiences a changeover to sleet or freezing rain.

Some models for the National Weather Service suggest 6 to 18 inches is a possibility, particularly in northern areas such as the Bronx which may remain all snow.

On the contrary, AccuWeather foresees a more conservative 6 to 8 inches, with potential for totals closer to a foot if the storm tracks farther north.

“This is going to be a very powerful snowstorm for the New York City area,” Bann said, noting that a cold air mass surging from the north combined with two interacting low‑pressure systems — one moving across the Appalachians and another forming off the New Jersey coast — will create a prolonged period of snowfall.

Senior AccuWeather Meteorologist Tom Kines emphasized the atmospheric “battle” between the high-pressure system over the Northeast and the low-pressure storm pushing up from the south. If the southern system wins, snowfall could approach a foot; if the high pressure forces the storm south, the city could see lighter snow totals. However, if the storm nudges too far north, the warmer air could introduce a wintry mix of sleet, freezing rain, or even rain — cutting down on snowfall accumulation.

Residents in different parts of New York City can expect different experiences. The Bronx and points north are most likely to see all snow, while Manhattan and Staten Island could see a wintry mix later Sunday, potentially reducing final totals.

Regardless of the exact snow total, plowing and shoveling are guaranteed, both forecasters agreed.

Once the storm moves out Monday morning, the region will face a new challenge of dangerously cold temperatures.

Bann believes based on National Weather Service data that New York City will enter a prolonged freeze lasting through midweek, creating cycles of melting and refreezing that could lead to treacherous black ice on roads and sidewalks.

According to AccuWeather’s weather prediction system, the cold will dip into the teens and low 20s, reducing the freeze-thaw hazard but extending the presence of snow and icy conditions.

A high-impact winter storm will spread snow and ice across more than two dozen states from Texas through the Carolinas and Massachusetts from Friday through the weekend.

The amount and extent of snow and ice could cut power and disrupt travel for days, increasing the risk to… pic.twitter.com/Pdj8DPwb8D

— AccuWeather (@accuweather) January 22, 2026 Travel impacts

Nationwide, air travel, according to Kines, is expected to be strongly impacted. The storm will likely disrupt major hubs including Dallas, Atlanta, Washington, D.C., Philadelphia, and Newark. This will create a domino effect of delays and cancellations across the country.

Meanwhile, New Yorkers should prepare for a weekend of harsh weather and frigid temperatures, Kines advised.

Grocery stores are expected to see heavy traffic by Friday and Saturday as residents stock up on essentials.

“I bet the stores Friday and probably Saturday as well are going to be crowded,” Kines said.

Kines cautioned that even after the storm passes, the bitter cold is here to stay.

“Get out and enjoy today,” Kines said. “The 40s will feel like summer compared to what’s coming.”