The stage is set for one of the most significant winter storms to hit the United States in years, with two-thirds of the nation in the path of a monstrous system that will deliver snow and ice amid punishing polar cold, with the immediate New York City area likely to get as much as a foot of snow on Sunday, with up to 18 inches inland.
At least 17 states have declared states of emergency so far, including New York and New Jersey, and thousands of flights have already been canceled. Over 180 million people are in the path of this storm. Heavy ice could pose serious risks to power and communication grids as well as roads and transportation systems from the Southwest to the Northeast amid Arctic-cold temperatures.
A Winter Storm Warning has been issued for New York City and the Tri-State area from early Sunday morning to Monday night, in addition to a Cold Weather Advisory that goes into effect Friday night.
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In New York, residents will wake up to subzero wind chills on Saturday, the final day to prepare for the storm, and once the system clears out Monday, the Arctic grip will not relent all week, meaning all that snow and ice will not melt away anytime soon, a rare phenomenon in recent years.
The storm is the result of disturbances coming from the west colliding with Arctic cold, forming a sprawling system that will move from New Mexico and the Texas panhandle Friday night with snow and ice and then extend its wintry march east across dozens of Southern states before reaching the Mid-Atlantic and curving north.
After initially fighting the dry, cold air mass, the snowfall will begin in earnest Sunday morning, likely around dawn, in New York City and the Tri-State area, with rapid accumulations from snowfall rates that could reach 1 to 2 inches per hour accompanied by whiteout conditions. Well north and west of New York City, the snow will pile up unimpeded until early morning Monday, when it will finally taper, leaving 12 to 18 inches.
In and around New York City, including parts of New Jersey and Long Island, expect 8 to 12 inches, and mixing later in the day could hold down totals. Even so, toward the of the event, it could go back to snow.
We introduced a 4 to 8 inch zone for southeastern Monmouth County, most of Ocean County, and the south shore of Long Island. These areas will likely mix in sleet earlier, cutting down on higher totals.
Even though temperatures will only reach 22 in the city on Sunday, well below freezing, the mixed precipitation will result from the intrusion of warmer air higher in the atmosphere, converting the snow to a wintry mix.
Regardless of final totals, travel is likely to be difficult if not impossible in places, and utilities will be on high alert for outages. Digging out from so much snow and ice, already burdensome, will be complicated by the longest stretch in eight years of temperatures staying below freezing for an extended period.
Governmental agencies across the Tri-state area are taking the threat seriously and are preparing for a significant snow storm.
While Saturday will be brutally cold, it will be dry, making it a good day to take care of any last-minute preparations ahead of the storm.
Check back regularly for an updated forecast discussion.