Get insights on thousands of stocks from the global community of over 7 million individual investors at Simply Wall St.
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (TSE:8306) is back in focus after its U.S. broker dealer MUFG Securities Americas was named a Primary Dealer by the New York Fed, which is sharpening attention on the stock ahead of upcoming earnings.
See our latest analysis for Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group.
The recent Primary Dealer designation and India expansion plans come at a time when the share price is at ¥2,835.5, with a 30 day share price return of 14.08%. The 1 year total shareholder return of 53.65% and very large 5 year total shareholder return suggest momentum has been strong over a longer horizon despite short term pullbacks such as the 7 day share price return of negative 5.17%.
If this kind of global banking story has your attention, it can also be worth scanning other financials and related names through fast growing stocks with high insider ownership to see what else stands out right now.
With the share price sitting above the average analyst target yet screening on some models as having an intrinsic discount, the key question now is simple: is Mitsubishi UFJ still mispriced, or is the market already baking in future growth?
Compared with the narrative fair value of ¥2,596.36, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group’s last close at ¥2,835.5 sits above that mark and frames the current debate around upside from here.
The analysts have a consensus price target of ¥2317.273 for Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of ¥2700.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just ¥1830.0.
Curious what kind of revenue path, margin profile and future earnings multiple need to line up to support that fair value when discounted at just over 6%? The most followed narrative is built on a specific glide path for profits and share count that could materially reshape earnings power by the late 2020s, and it leans on assumptions that are typically reserved for higher growth names. If you want to see exactly how those moving parts stack up against the current ¥2,835.5 price, the full story is in the detailed forecast.
Result: Fair Value of ¥2,596.36 (OVERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.
However, this hinges on equity sales and bond portfolio income holding up, and any shift in yen interest rates or exchange rates could quickly challenge those assumptions.
Find out about the key risks to this Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group narrative.
While the popular narrative frames Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group as 9.2% overvalued at ¥2,835.5 versus a fair value of ¥2,596.36, our DCF model paints a very different picture. On that cash flow view, the shares trade at ¥2,835.5 against an estimated value of ¥3,871.95, which screens as undervalued. With two models pulling in opposite directions, investors can consider which approach best fits how they think this bank will actually earn its money over time.
Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.
8306 Discounted Cash Flow as at Jan 2026
Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 871 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match – so you never miss a potential opportunity.
If you look at the assumptions and feel they do not quite fit your view, you can stress test the same data, adjust the inputs and build a tailored thesis in just a few minutes with Do it your way.
A great starting point for your Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
If you stop with just one bank, you could miss out on other opportunities the Simply Wall St screener brings into focus for different themes and sectors.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include 8306.T.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com