STATEN ISLAND, N.Y. — Each Groundhog Day, Punxsutawney Phil and Staten Island Chuck go head-to-head in a long-running battle for prognosticating bragging rights.
Phil and Chuck will once again face off on Monday, Feb. 2.
The two famous groundhogs tasked with predicting the arrival of spring have drastically different statistical accuracy.
Chuck is the most accurate groundhog, according to 2025 data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Chuck boasts an 85% accuracy rate from the last 20 years, according to the NOAA.
Chuck has been on the job at the Staten Island Zoo in West Brighton since 1981, and certainly hasn’t been a perfect meteorologist. In 2017, students at PS 45 in West Brighton tracked local weather patterns and concluded that Chuck got it wrong. Before that, his last incorrect call was reportedly in 2009 — the same year he famously bit then-Mayor Michael Bloomberg.
In this 2009 photo, Mayor Michael Bloomberg tries to coax Chuck out of his den. The groundhog bit him before correctly predicting an early spring at the Staten Island Zoo.Toniann DiCostanzo
Punxsutawney Phil, meanwhile, has a significantly lower accuracy rate. The Pennsylvania groundhog has been delivering predictions from Gobbler’s Knob since 1887, but according to the NOAA data, Phil’s accuracy rate sits at just 35% over the last 20 years.
He was ranked the 17th most accurate groundhog last year.
What actually determines whether a groundhog’s prediction is correct?
Tradition holds that if a groundhog emerges from its burrow and sees its shadow, the region is in for six more weeks of winter. If there’s no shadow, an early spring is on the way.
To measure accuracy, the six weeks following Groundhog Day are analyzed. If there are more atypical weather days than typical ones, the prediction is considered an early spring. An atypical day is defined as one in which temperatures rise above 40 degrees. If typical days dominate, it counts as six more weeks of winter.
In both 2024 and 2025, Chuck accurately predicted an early spring.
With Groundhog Day fast approaching, the pressure is once again on both Phil and Chuck to get it right.
We’ll find out on Monday morning at the Staten Island Zoo whether Chuck can add another win to his record.