New York Gov. Kathy Hochul has her highest-ever favorability rating and holds a wide lead over Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman in a hypothetical race for governor later this year, according to a Siena University poll of registered voters released Tuesday.

According to the poll, Hochul has a 49-40% favorability rating, the first time she has hit 49%. She holds a 26-point lead over Blakeman, 54-28%, and among Democrats, holds a 53-point lead, 64-11% over her only challenger from the left, Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado.

“As we start the second month of this much watched mid-term election year, Hochul has a commanding lead among registered voters over both Delgado, among Democrats, and Blakeman, with all voters,” Siena pollster Steven Greenberg said. “While a 49-40% favorability rating is not generally seen as something to gloat about, for Hochul it is a net seven point gain from December, but more noteworthy is the fact that it is the first time in four and a half years as governor that Hochul has had 49% of voters view her favorably in a Siena poll. Even though independents continue to view her unfavorably as do an overwhelming majority of Republicans, Democrats view Hochul favorably 69-20%, up from 62-25%, and the best she’s been with Democrats in three years.”

The state party conventions will be held in the next few weeks, with Blakeman likely to solidify the GOP nomination after U.S. Rep. Elise Stefanik ended her brief campaign in December.

“Ten months from election day, Blakeman – largely unknown to three in five New York voters – has his work cut out for him. Hochul’s 79-8% lead among Democrats is significantly better than Blakeman’s 69-15% lead with Republicans, and she leads 41-34% with independents, as well as in every region of the state,” Greenberg said. “Against Delgado, among Democrats, Hochul has at least 60% support in every region of the state, as well as the support of 68% of self-described liberals and 65% of moderates.”

Helpful to Hochul is support for some of her latest policy plans. According to the poll, six of her proposals each have between 56-68% support, including four with bipartisan support: 

Eliminating state income tax on the first $25,000 earned in tips (68-15%)
Ensuring immigration enforcement targeting people whose only crime is being in the country illegally cannot occur in sensitive locations (schools, hospitals, places of worship) unless there is a judicial warrant (67-21%)
Increasing childcare funding by $1.7 billion (66-18%) 
Providing $30 million in payments to farmers to offset what Hochul calls rising costs due to tariffs (59-17%)

“Certainly, focusing on these issues in an election year will not hurt Hochul with voters, nor will it hurt legislators also seeking reelection,” Greenberg said.

When it comes to the latest federal issues, New Yorkers don’t like U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), the poll found, with only 28% supporting it and 67% opposed to it. Voters support deporting immigrants lacking legal status 43-35%, but oppose the way ICE is working to arrest people 61-29%. According to the poll, two-thirds of New Yorkers think ICE’s tactics have gone too far, and they oppose the federal government sending additional ICE agents to New York 59-33%.  

“When it comes to ICE, voters quickly divide into partisan camps, with independents coming closer to the views of Democrats,” Greenberg said. “Republicans view ICE favorably, support the way they are working and nearly three-quarters want additional ICE agents sent to New York City. Democrats and independents say exactly the opposite: unfavorable to ICE, don’t like the way they work, and don’t want more of them in the Big Apple.”

When it comes to President Donald Trump, he remains largely unpopular in New York, with a 33-63% favorability rating, virtually unchanged from December.

“The more things change, the more Trump’s favorability and job approval ratings stay the same — that is to say, seriously underwater,” Greenberg said. “In February 2014, when Trump’s name was in discussion to run for governor of New York, his favorability rating was 31-62%. In February 2018, after one year as President, his favorability rating was 33-62%. In February 2022, after being out of office for a year, his favorability rating was 35-59%. Today, it’s 33-63%. New York voters are nothing if not consistent when it comes to their feelings about Donald Trump.”

The only item Trump polled positively, albeit by a single point, was securing the U.S. border with Mexico, the poll found. He was underwater otherwise, on ending wars, making prices more affordable, making Americans proud to be Americans and enhancing America’s standing in the world.

“Although 62% of Democrats disapprove of Trump’s handling of securing our border with Mexico, 83% of Republicans and a plurality of independents, 49%, approve, giving Trump his best individual job approval rating, 45-44%,” Greenberg said. “Republicans ‘lowest’ support for Trump is on making prices more affordable, where they approve 64-22%. Trump gets his worst approval rating from Democrats (14-78%) and independents (31-56%) on his handling of the deportation of people illegally in the United States.”

New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, now in his second month as mayor, has a 48-32% favorability rating, up from 46-31% in December. He is viewed favorably by 64% of Democrats, unfavorably by 68% of Republicans, and favorably, 43-31%, by independents.

When it comes to the congressional elections this fall, New Yorkers continue to favor Democrats on the generic congressional ballot, currently 56-29%, the poll said, up slightly from 55-31% in December. While 84% of Democrats support a Democrat for Congress, and 77% of Republicans support a Republican, independent voters favor the Democrats 46-29%, up a little from 40-28% in December.

The poll was conducted Jan. 26-28 among 802 registered New York voters and has an overall margin of error of +/- 4.3 percentage points.