Verra Mobility Corporation recently finalized a five-year, US$998 million contract with the New York City Department of Transportation to continue managing and expanding the city’s automated red-light, speed, bus lane, and weight-limit enforcement camera programs, effective from January 1, 2026, with an option for a further five-year extension.
The agreement materially increases the scope of Verra Mobility’s work in New York by expanding red-light cameras from 150 to 600 intersections, upgrading legacy equipment, and committing to 33% utilization of minority- and women-owned business enterprises alongside community partnerships and public education initiatives.
We’ll now examine how this expanded New York City enforcement contract, including the fourfold red-light camera rollout, affects Verra Mobility’s investment narrative.
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To own Verra Mobility, you need to believe in long-lived, recurring revenue from governments and fleets as they adopt more automated enforcement and tolling technology. The new US$998 million New York City contract directly addresses the biggest current risk around contract renewal and concentration in Government Solutions, while near term, I see the key catalyst shifting to how quickly these expanded programs translate into stable margins and cash generation once deployments ramp.
Among recent announcements, the upcoming Q4 2025 earnings release and call on February 24, 2026 now look particularly important, as they should give investors an updated view on how this expanded New York agreement fits into guidance, capital allocation, and the balance between growth investments and profitability across the portfolio.
Yet even with this contract in place, investors should still be aware that reliance on a single large municipal customer…
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Verra Mobility’s narrative projects $1.1 billion revenue and $289.5 million earnings by 2028. This requires 7.0% yearly revenue growth and about a $250.5 million earnings increase from $39.0 million today.
Uncover how Verra Mobility’s forecasts yield a $29.83 fair value, a 62% upside to its current price.
VRRM 1-Year Stock Price Chart
One member of the Simply Wall St Community currently values Verra Mobility at US$29.83 per share, underscoring how individual assessments can differ from the market price. You should weigh that against the renewed New York City exposure and concentration risk, and consider how different assumptions about that contract might change the company’s longer term performance profile.
Explore another fair value estimate on Verra Mobility – why the stock might be worth just $29.83!
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include VRRM.
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