STATEN ISLAND, N.Y. — New York City could dodge a frosty bullet or it could end up with half a foot of snow from a nor’easter set to develop this weekend.
Although John Murray, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service, is monitoring the potential for half an inch of rain on Friday and some light snow Saturday, he believes Sunday’s storm could yield the greatest impact.
The “potentially strong” coastal storm is expected to develop offshore Sunday night into Monday, but great uncertainty remains over just how impactful this storm will be.
As of Thursday morning, some model solutions show the nor’easter tracking farther south and east of the city, resulting in no snow. Meanwhile, there are other solutions which show a “typical nor’easter track” in which the city receives “a significant amount of snow” — potentially 6 inches or more.
“It looks potentially that there is a possibility that we could have some significant, impactful snowfall and gusty winds as well for Sunday,” Murray told the Advance/SILive.com.
Dan Pydynowski, a senior meteorologist with AccuWeather, reiterated the influence the track of the storm will have on ultimate snowfall tallies.
“Right now, we think the most likely outcome for the New York City area is sort of a general 1 to 3 inches of snow. And that would fall — it could start falling during the day on Sunday and then continue into Sunday night and Monday morning before it wraps up,” he said. “Best chance for accumulation may be Sunday evening and Sunday night when it gets a little bit colder.”
Pydynowski noted that any snow that does come down during the day Sunday may have trouble sticking as temperatures may be just above freezing.
Murray said temperatures will remain near their daily average in the coming days. Sunday is forecast to feature a high in the upper 30s and lows right around freezing (32 degrees Fahrenheit).
In addition to snow, the nor’easter is forecast to bring wind gusts of up to around 35 mph on Sunday, particularly for those along the coastline, according to Murray.
Should the storm strengthen enough, it could bring about gale force winds, which Murray explained could include gusts of around 40 mph.
Even if the storm were to miss the city, Pydynowski is confident the five boroughs will still experience heightened winds from the coastal storm.
“It is still going to turn windy, probably winds start increasing later in the day on Sunday and we see strong winds continuing Sunday night and throughout the day on Monday,” he added.
As of Thursday morning, Pydynowski forecasts winds of 15-25 mph with elevated gusts.