New York’s energy research agency says the state’s landmark climate law is infeasible

The agency tasked with boosting New York’s clean energy transition sent Gov. Kathy Hochul a letter on Thursday calling the state’s climate law infeasible and overly expensive to implement.

The letter from the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority, which is controlled by the governor, outlined extra costs New York households could face if the law is implemented as planned. The 2019 Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act calls for 70% of the state’s power to come from clean energy sources by 2030, and become completely emission-free energy by the end of the next decade.

NYSERDA is the latest group to raise flags about the energy transition goals set by the law. Currently, the state is way off its targets. The grid that powers New York City is about 90% reliant on fossil fuels.

The state’s power grid operator, which is independent of the state government, warned last year that New York City could face a massive energy deficiency as soon as this summer. Hochul is also in the midst of a court battle that aims to modify the law after delaying its implementation for more than two years. And the letter comes as the state Department of Public Service has begun a process to suspend the law — the agency is empowered to do so through the 2019 legislation.

The letter warned that if the law is implemented, New York City households could see their natural gas bills increase by $2,300 annually by 2031. Fossil fuel costs could increase significantly across the board and gasoline prices in the state would exceed $5 per gallon as a result of the rules, NYSERDA warned.

“Addressing this cost escalation is essential to deliver a policy that supports affordability and economic competitiveness and is necessary to ensure continued progress on decarbonization policy,” the letter said.

The state climate law was passed after President Donald Trump pulled the United States out of the Paris Agreement, a landmark international treaty to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, during his first term. But it was the product of years of advocacy and planning by state lawmakers and New York’s influential environmental lobby.

Environmental groups called NYSERDA’s analysis one-sided because it did not show how clean power would affect costs for consumers if the state accelerates its energy transition.

Advocates pointed out that renewable energy is a far less expensive power source than fossil fuels. According to a 2025 analysis by the International Renewable Energy Agency, solar power is around 40% cheaper than the lowest-cost fossil fuel options, and wind power was more than 50% less expensive.

By contrast, the costs of fossil fuel sources are rising substantially.

“This is a nonserious set of unsourced calculations,” said Raya Salter, a member of the Climate Action Council, which helped craft the 2019 climate law. “The cost of climate inaction outweighs the cost of climate action.”

The law also mandates that the state reduce greenhouse gas emission by 40% by 2030. Emissions have reduced by just 15%, according to a 2025 report by the state Department of Environmental Conservation.

If businesses do not reduce their emissions as required, the legislation mandates the state to issue them fines proportional to how much they exceed the new limits for greenhouse gases. The letter to Hochul said that would be a burden on businesses, noting small- and medium-sized businesses could see their utility costs rise as much as 46%. The cost to operate a delivery truck could rise by more than 60%, according to the letter.

While there are provisions for penalizing businesses, there is no method laid out in the law to issue fines to households for carbon pollution. NYSERDA calculations assume that the cost to businesses will be passed on to consumers. If there is no reduction in emissions by 2031, businesses could face roughly $28 billion in penalties.

“ I want people to understand what’s at stake here,” Hochul said at a press conference Wednesday. “If the New Yorker is a family living upstate with home heating oil with probably one car, it’s an additional $3,500 a year.”

The agency’s analysis found the clean energy deployment required by the law is not possible, citing the lack of market capacity to provide enough renewable sources, electric vehicles and heat pumps mandated for compliance.

“The modeled price would lead to high burdens to New York households, especially those unable to install lower-emissions technologies,” the letter stated.

Salter said the climate law is structured to make businesses pay for the pollution they create and to incentivize them to become more sustainable. The penalties would fund renewable energy projects as well as upgrades for households. The intention of the law is to make the transition easy on residents, Salter said.

“The memo disingenuously details costs of the energy transition while ignoring the massive savings New Yorkers will gain from switching off expensive fossil fuels, avoiding intensified climate disasters, and spending less on the deadly health impacts of climate change,” said Alex Patterson, campaign coordinator for the advocacy group Public Power New York. “Meanwhile, NYSERDA ignores not only the many policies Governor Hochul could adopt to make the transition more affordable, but even the many programs that already exist.”