New York City Councilwoman Vickie Paladino is warning Republicans that Texas could show they’re in “big trouble” if it starts to shift and that the GOP needs to do everything it can to keep that from happening.
The Texas primary elections on Tuesday offered an early snapshot of the forces likely to shape control of the U.S. Senate in November, underscoring both President Donald Trump’s continued sway over Republican voters and lingering concerns about Democratic momentum in a traditionally red state. With the Senate balance expected to hinge on just a handful of races, Republicans warn that even incremental Democratic gains in Texas could have national consequences after years of Democrats hoping they can flip the state.
“If Texas can move any way other than center right, we’re in big trouble. We could never ever lose Texas,” Paladino said on Newsweek’s The Caitlin Sinclair Show. “[President Donald Trump] needs to go out—and he will because he’s tireless—he knows what he’s got to do and he know how important it is.”
The Texas Republican Senate contest between incumbent Senator John Cornyn and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is headed to a runoff after neither candidate reached the 50 percent threshold in Tuesday’s primary. Cornyn had a narrow lead, by less than 2 percent, but only reached 41.9 percent of the vote. Trump has yet to endorse a candidate, though his backing could prove decisive in the May runoff.
Trump posted on Truth Social that he’ll issue an endorsement soon and that neither candidate did enough to unify the race.
“Is that fair? We must win in November!!! Thank you for your attention to this matter,” Trump wrote in the post.
The primary also delivered a major upset in Texas’ 2nd Congressional District, where Representative Dan Crenshaw lost. The former Navy SEAL has faced criticism from the party’s right flank for not being sufficiently aligned with Trump, a factor commentators and Republican activists have cited as contributing to his defeat.
“He was a bit of a RINO back in his day. He hardened up a bit. And now we saw the results of these primaries,” Paladino said.
On the Democratic side, Paladino and other conservatives zeroed in on turnout and competitive races as signs that Democrats remain energized, even in traditionally Republican territory. Democrats celebrated several strong performances across the state, fueling speculation about whether Texas could become more competitive in future statewide races.
Democratic U.S. Representative Jasmine Crockett, who lost her primary challenge to state Representative James Talarico, argued after the election that Texas remains politically competitive and “primed to turn blue,” comments that have drawn sharp pushback from Republicans. Analysts note that while Democrats still face steep odds statewide, their recent gains in urban and suburban areas continue to worry GOP strategists.
Sinclair said Republican complacency, rather than Democratic momentum alone, could be the bigger threat.
“This should worry everyone because we cannot ever come close to losing a state like Texas, ever,” Sinclair said. “I think what we’re seeing right now is Republicans are fighting to show who loves Donald Trump more and Democrats are fighting to show who hates Donald Trump more.”
Political analysts say Texas remains a difficult lift for Democrats at the statewide level, particularly in a presidential election year, but acknowledge that narrow margins and high turnout in primaries are closely watched indicators. The state’s Senate race, in particular, is expected to draw national attention and significant outside spending.
Democratic turnout in the primaries reached a record high, and Paladino told Sinclair that it does worry her about the general election in November. She said Democrats are “fired up” and Republicans have “become very subdued.” Instead, she said, Republicans need to have a cohesive, consistent message that they deliver with excitement.
“They fall into the comfort zone, as soon as you get comfortable, you lose,” Paladino said. “You got to stay on top of your game all the time.”
Paladino added that Republicans can’t only focus on states they’re likely to win and encouraged them to focus their attention on New York, her home state. She said focusing on affordability and New York City Democratic Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s proposed raising of property taxes could be a winning strategy. And while Republicans can’t win with people firmly in the Democratic camp, she suggested going after independents and “downtrodden Democrats” who are frustrated with the Democrats’ shift further to the left.
Paladino’s fighting her own battle at home as she faces charges from the New York City Council’s standards and ethics committee for making Islamophobic remarks. She’s now required to provide a written response and will have to meet with the committee in a closed-door session. Penalties can include sanctions, fines or even expulsion, but a final verdict requires approval from two-thirds of the City Council.
“As an elected official and an American, I have an absolute first amendment right to speak on these matters of public policy in any way I see fit. Period,” Paladino posted on X, formerly Twitter. She later added that the committee’s ruling was a “mockery of the first amendment.”
As both parties turn their attention toward the general election, the Texas primaries are likely to be cited repeatedly—either as proof of Republican resilience fueled by Trump’s influence, or as evidence that Democrats see new opportunities even in deep-red territory.
The Caitlin Sinclair Show on Newsweek is released every Monday, Wednesday and Friday. Subscribe here.