James Talarico 
Jasmine Crockett Counties with more Hispanic votersEast Texas areas with more Black voters went for Crockett.
James Talarico’s victory in the Democratic Senate primary race in Texas was powered in part by a sizable advantage among Latino voters, a sought-after group that Democrats are hoping to win back.
Latino voters, historically a Democratic-leaning group, have been slowly shifting to the right, including a significant move toward President Trump in 2024. This year’s midterm elections will be closely watched to see whether these voters who were moved to support Republicans two years ago can be persuaded to back Democrats again.
In the Texas counties with the highest shares of Latino voters, Mr. Talarico outperformed his Democratic rival, Representative Jasmine Crockett, by wide margins. And while it is difficult to draw conclusions from a Democratic primary about how he might perform in a general election, the results showed Mr. Talarico, a state representative, with strength in some key areas.
Hispanic counties voted for Talarico
Democratic primary vote share by county demographics
Counties with …James TalaricoJasmine Crockett More Hispanic voters
45 counties (20% of vote share)
60%38% More Black voters
9 counties (15%)
37%61% More white voters
200 counties (65%)
54%45%
In El Paso, for example, where Latinos make up more than 80 percent of the county, he won 62 percent of the vote. In Bexar County, which includes the predominantly Latino city of San Antonio, he received 57 percent of the vote.
Mr. Talarico had significant advantages in both time — he entered the race months before Ms. Crockett — and campaign cash. That allowed him to target advertising to Latino audiences earlier, his campaign consultants said, and to reach voters on social media and during sporting events.
In several counties along the Mexican border, where Republicans have made some of the most significant gains in recent years, Mr. Talarico dominated with double-digit leads over Ms. Crockett. He formed an alliance with Bobby Pulido, a Tejano music star who won his own Democratic primary on Tuesday in the 15th Congressional District. In Hidalgo County, where much of that district is located, Mr. Talarico won 67 percent of the vote, compared with just 30 percent for Ms. Crockett. He performed roughly as well in Cameron and Webb Counties, which also sit at the southern tip of the state.
The Democratic primary highlighted the stark racial divisions in many areas of Texas, a diverse state where Latino residents make up about 40 percent of the population. Mr. Talarico dominated in Austin and its suburbs, which have large numbers of white voters. Black voters favored Ms. Crockett even more in urban neighborhoods and in East Texas, where many Black Democrats live.
The vast majority of Latino voters in Texas live in diverse urban counties, and Mr. Talarico’s edge extended into those counties, as well.
But Ms. Crockett narrowly won in some of the state’s largest cities, including Dallas, Fort Worth and Houston, in large part because of her overwhelming advantage among Black voters.
The results in Harris County, which includes Houston, suggest a sharp racial divide. Ms. Crockett won more than 86 percent of the vote in predominantly Black precincts, while Mr. Talarico took more than 75 percent in white ones.
That trend continued in other predominantly Hispanic parts of the county: Mr. Talarico won in precincts with a mix of Hispanic and white residents but lost in neighborhoods with large Black and Hispanic populations.
Mr. Talarico’s campaign used his message of faith and political moderation in its Spanish advertising. Ms. Crockett, who had significantly less campaign cash, was unable to keep up. And many of her campaign events, even in heavily Latino places like San Antonio, drew a mostly Black crowd.
Hispanic counties voted for Cornyn
Republican primary vote share by county demographics
Counties with …John CornynKen PaxtonWesley Hunt More Hispanic voters
6 counties (3% of vote share)
45%37%10% More white voters
248 counties (97%)
42%41%14%
Latino voters played a much smaller role in the Republican primary for Senate, a three-way race that sent Senator John Cornyn and Ken Paxton, the hard-right state attorney general, to a May run-off. Mr. Cornyn, who projects a more measured tone and tried to make his campaign about character against the scandal-tarnished Mr. Paxton, won significantly more votes in urban counties and heavily Hispanic counties. Mr. Paxton’s support was more concentrated among the party’s base of rural and suburban white voters.
Urban counties voted for Cornyn
Republican primary vote share by county type
County typeJohn CornynKen PaxtonWesley Hunt Urban
7 counties (30% of vote share)
45%37%14% Suburban
49 counties (48%)
41%42%13%40%44%13%
Voters in Texas do not register with a party to vote in a primary, and in previous elections, some voters have chosen one party in the primary but voted for another in November. There is little doubt that Republicans will court Latino voters in the general election, with both parties viewing them as one of the last swing groups in the country.