Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul’s lead against Republican Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman in New York’s gubernatorial race narrowed in the latest poll released this week.
Hochul Campaign Spokesperson Ryan Radulovacki responded to the poll in a statement to Newsweek.
“New Yorkers know that Governor Kathy Hochul fights for them and their families, from putting money back in their pockets through inflation refund checks, to lowering the cost of car insurance, to universal child care – and every day they watch Bruce Blakeman enable Donald Trump’s attacks on New York and let his unaccountable ICE agents trample on their rights,” Radulovacki said.
Newsweek also reached out to the Blakeman campaign for comment via email.
Why It Matters
New York, long viewed as one of the most Democratic states in the nation, has become increasingly competitive over the last few years. Hochul faced a closer-than-expected race in 2022, and former Vice President Kamala Harris underperformed past Democratic presidential candidates against President Donald Trump in 2024.
The state has become closer as Democrats lost ground with key voter groups such as Latino, Asian American and young voters. This race will be a key test of whether Republicans can continue making inroads with those voters, or whether Democrats win them back and solidify their grasp on the state government.
Although Republicans hope to make the 2026 contest competitive, polls have generally shown Hochul in a stronger position compared to four years earlier. A favorable national environment fueled by Trump’s declining approval rating has also fueled Democrats’ optimism about the race.
Still, Republicans believe Blakeman, who has won competitive races before, is a strong candidate who can win over independents.
What To Know
Siena College released a new poll this week that pointed to a narrowing race between Hochul and Blakeman, both of whom are expected to easily win their primaries. It still found Hochul with a lead, albeit one smaller compared to the pollster’s September survey.
Hochul led Blakeman by 20 points (51 percent to 31 percent) in the latest poll, down from a 26-point lead in January (54 percent to 28 percent), the poll found.
Her favorability rating fell from +9 points in January to +4 points in the latest poll, while her approval rating stood at +12 points (53 percent to 41 percent), compared to +13 points in January (54 percent to 41 percent).
Blakeman’s favorability, meanwhile, improved from -2 (18 percent to 20 percent) to +3 (21 percent to 18 percent). But 16 percent of respondents said they had never heard of him or have no opinion of him.
“Democrats still outnumber Republicans more than two-to-one, so it’s not surprising to see Hochul continue to maintain a large double digit lead over Blakeman, although it’s tightened a little bit in the last month,” Siena pollster Steven Greenberg wrote in a polling memo.
The race has tightened due to Republican voters “coming home” to Blakeman and the race tightening among men, he said, noting that Hochul’s lead among men shrunk from 22 points in January to four points in February.
The downstate suburbs also shifted toward Blakeman in the recent poll. She led by two points, down from 14 points previously, he said.
The poll surveyed 805 registered voters from February 23-26, 2026 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.
Blakeman, a Long Island Republican, previously served on the Hempstead Town Council and as a Port Authority commissioner before winning the Nassau County executive seat. He became the frontrunner for the GOP nomination after Representative Elise Stefanik dropped out of the race. He has the backing of Trump.
Hochul became governor in 2021 after former Governor Andrew Cuomo resigned in 2021 over a report from Attorney General Letitia James’ office alleging that he sexually harassed multiple female employees and created a toxic work environment. She won a full term in 2022. Rich Azzopardi, a Cuomo spokesperson, told Newsweek on Thursday that Cuomo has always denied the allegations.
Hochul faced a primary challenge from Lt. Governor Antonio Delgado, but he ended his campaign in February after numerous polls showed her with a solid lead among Democratic voters.
The poll comes just days after Hochul secured a legal victory over the Trump administration. U.S. District Judge Lewis J. Liman said the U.S. Department of Transportation lacked the authority to unilaterally revoke federal approval for New York City’s congestion pricing program, allowing it to stay in effect.
Hochul celebrated the ruling in a statement, writing, “The judge’s decision is clear: Donald Trump’s unlawful attempts to trample on the self-governance of his home state have failed spectacularly.”
Blakeman previously told Newsweek his county is a “mirror image of the state.”
“There’s more Democrats in New York State than Republicans, but I believe a large number of Democrats are going to cross over and vote for me. And also, I’ve got a majority in my last election of independent voters, both women and men voted in the majority towards me. I believe I’ll be able to do that in the state. So I’m very confident that I will be the next governor of the state of New York,” he said.
How This Compares to Past New York Races
The poll gives Hochul a clear advantage after a tight race in 2022, when she won by just over six points against former Representative Lee Zeldin (53 percent to 47 percent).
Cuomo won by a more comfortable 23-point margin in 2018 (59 percent to 36 percent), a 14-point margin in 2014 (54 percent to 40 percent) and a nearly a 30-point margin in 2010 (63 percent to 34 percent).
In 2006, former Governor Eliot Spitzer won by nearly 39 points (66 percent to 27 percent).
George Pataki was the last Republican to win the governorship in 2002, winning by nearly 16 points (49 percent to 34 percent).
Kathy Hochul vs. Bruce Blakeman Betting Odds
Betting odds give Hochul a significant advantage over Blakeman. Kalshi’s betting odds market gives her a 91 percent chance of winning, while Polymarket gave her a 93 percent chance of winning Thursday morning.
What People Are Saying
Siena pollster Steven Greenberg wrote in the polling memo: “Hochul’s favorability rating fell a few points from its high in January but is still in positive territory, albeit not by very much. Her job approval rating barely moved and remains positive—well, at least among Democrats. As for Blakeman, there are less than 250 days until election day and he has a lot of voters to educate. Only two in five voters know enough about him to say whether they view him favorably or unfavorably—and they’re closely divided. The majority, 61 percent, have either never heard of Blakeman or don’t know enough about him to have an opinion.”
Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman previously told Newsweek: “This poll confirms that a majority of New Yorkers want a new governor because Kathy Hochul’s policies have caused taxes, electricity bills, and insurance premiums to soar, and New York to become unaffordable.”
What Happens Next
The months ahead will likely center on turnout strategies and voter outreach as Hochul and Blakeman offer contrasting visions of crime, taxes and affordability. Both campaigns are expected to ramp up messaging around economic issues—a top concern for New Yorkers in every region.
Betting odds favor Hochul. The Cook Political Report classifies the race as Safe Democratic, while Sabato’s Crystal Ball considers it Likely Democratic.
Update 3/5/26, 12:18 p.m. ET: This article was updated with additional information.
Update 3/5/26, 1:58 p.m. ET: This article was updated with additional information.
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