STATEN ISLAND, N.Y. — It’s evident that the weather in New York City is poor this weekend. But just how bad could it really get?
While the exact intensity is not set in stone, meteorologists are highly confident that the city will see coastal flooding, gusty winds and considerable rainfall.
Despite some rain coming down on Saturday and a 50% chance of rain overnight, the main weather event is forecast for Sunday afternoon.
Overnight wind gusts peaking around 24 mph will increase to around 40 mph in the city, according to the National Weather Service. Some areas, such as parts of Brooklyn and Queens, could even see gusts of up to 60 mph. As such, a high wind watch will go into effect for parts of the city from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon.
The threat of flooding
“The worst of the coastal impacts gets going tomorrow afternoon,” Bill Deger, a senior meteorologist with AccuWeather, said. “So there’s a high-tide cycle early in the afternoon, that’s when we expect minor to moderate tidal flooding.”
An AccuWeather graphic shows the track of the coastal storm through Thursday, Oct. 16, 2025.(AccuWeather)
Residents should expect another high tide sometime between 1 a.m. and 2 a.m. early Monday morning. A third high tide is forecast for Monday afternoon.
As of Saturday morning, Jay Engle, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Upton, New York, believes the city will see “widespread” minor to moderate coastal flooding of 1.5-2.5 feet. Long Island, on the other hand, should prepare for the potential of “major flooding.”
“Right now for the Staten Island, you know, up to the New York Harbor, Battery area, it’s a minor to moderate tidal flooding. You know, nothing like you guys experienced with Sandy, but certainly vulnerable areas along the coast will see some water move a little bit further inland than usual,” added Deger.
As of Saturday morning, the city is expected to be under a coastal flood watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday evening.
A National Weather Service graphic shows forecast rainfall amounts in New York City from Saturday, Oct. 11, through Tuesday, Oct. 14, 2025.(National Weather Service)
In addition to winds capable of triggering power outages and enhancing coastal flooding, the storm is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches in and around the city, according to Deger. Both Engle and Deger foresee a general rainfall tally around 2 inches in the city by the time all is said and done on Tuesday.
The worst of the conditions will persist from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. Rain is not expected to cause significant flooding, but urban flooding remains a possibility.
“It’s going to take a while to fully exit,” explained Deger. “The rain begins to taper off later Monday, but, you know, the entire amount of rain with the storm may not exit until Tuesday morning.”
Given the latest forecasts, city officials are urging residents to prepare for the possibility of flooding and power outages.
An influential factor on storm intensity
Although meteorologists are confident that the city will see rain, flooding and wind from this storm, the exact intensity may still fluctuate. As previously reported, the rain experienced on Saturday is from an energy mass originating out of Canada, not the storm forecast to hit the city on Sunday. The coastal storm of tropical origin is expected to make its way north and morph with this energy mass; how these two blend will ultimately determine the outlook of this system.
“There certainly is a little bit of uncertainty in exactly where the storm will track and there’s the chance that the storms may actually split into two as that energy from Canada comes on down,” Deger said.
“So yeah, there’s still a little bit of uncertainty as to how much rain, how much wind there could be, but we do think, at a minimum, an inch of rain, 40 mph winds are pretty much a given,” he added. “Tidal flooding is a given as well.”
In the event the energy masses merge cleanly, the storm itself will likely be stronger. However, as previously explained by Alex DaSilva, lead hurricane expert with AccuWeather, if the timing is off, the storm could end up being weaker than initially expected.
Regardless, gusty winds, rain and coastal flooding are sure to impact Columbus Day weekend plans in New York City.
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