Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for NFL Week 8’s game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the New York Jets.

Paycor will buzz for a get-right Sunday, and the matchup geometry tilts orange. Quarterback Joe Flacco arrives steady and decisive, fresh off 342 yards and three touchdowns. Across the sideline, New York staggers in at 0-7 after a quarterback week that rattled the building. Coaches withheld a starter through midweek, then handed Justin Fields the job after first-team reps. Tyrod Taylor’s knee shut him down, and ownership’s public critique poured fuel on the search for answers. Fields pilots an offense that has gone eight quarters without a touchdown and sits at 143.4 passing yards per game. Garrett Wilson’s absence strips his best outlet, so the plan narrows to quick game, boots, and Breece Hall ballast. The field will thrum with tension because the hosts know the middle third of a season can pivot on a single clean afternoon. Below is my prediction for NFL Week 8’s game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the New York Jets.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

Cincinnati carries a 72.9% pass rate when playing with a lead of three or more, the league’s highest by 10.3%. That preference meets a Jets defense missing cornerback Sauce Gardner and wide receiver Garrett Wilson on the other side of the ball. Without Gardner, Ja’Marr Chase faces fewer tight, leverage-heavy snaps on the boundary, and Tee Higgins’ intermediate windows widen. Those matchups land against a Jets front that sits bottom-tier in pressure rate, a crucial relief valve for a Bengals line that has graded bottom-three in pass protection. If pockets stay clean, timing will purr and air damage will stack.

Zoom in on the turbulence across the river. Quarterback Justin Fields draws the start after a week of first-team work, while Tyrod Taylor sits. The owner’s public critique of the position poured accelerant on a staff already juggling answers. The Jets average only 143.4 passing yards per game, which ranks 32nd, and their scoring stalls at 18.4 points per game. They pair that with 33% on third down and a 57.1% red-zone rate that still lags game script needs. The offense has produced 17 total points across the last two losses and went eight quarters without a touchdown. That drought forces an already burdened defense to hold breath after breath.

Cincinnati’s defense invites counters, and acknowledging them sharpens the edge. The Bengals allow 394.4 yards per game, which ranks 31st. They surrender 257.1 passing yards per game and 137.3 rushing yards per game, and they have bled 43 explosive pass plays. They also allow the third-most EPA per rush at 0.054. Those numbers howl for a Breece Hall surge, because running back Breece Hall owns elite explosive traits and has posted top-tier explosive run rates all season. The Jets also sit ninth in rushing at 127.9 yards per game, and that figure offers them ballast.

The refutation flows through context and consolidation. New York plays this one without Garrett Wilson, which strips Fields of his primary separator and coverage dictator. That absence narrows spacing and lets Cincinnati spin resources toward Hall without fearing single coverage death outside. Meanwhile, Cincinnati’s pass rush ranks low in pressure rate but faces a Jets line that has allowed one of the league’s highest pressure rates. The give-and-take leans toward a functional rush without blitz bloat. If the Bengals force longer down-and-distances, New York’s 33% third-down rate collapses drives, and a defense that has allowed only 13 points in each of the last two games suddenly faces short fields and tempo.

New York, still winless, has hit four overs in seven, but that trend leans on defensive exhaustion rather than offensive discovery. Cincinnati has played five overs in seven, yet the most recent spike came with turnovers and short fields. With Gardner and Wilson inactive, the Jets lose their two best levers for variance: a perimeter eraser and a game-breaking target. That subtraction trims backdoor scenarios and forces a narrower path to chaos.

Jets vs. Bengals pick, best bet

Flacco will open with quick game to Chase and Higgins, using glance and speed-out families to loosen a secondary playing backups into conflict. Those early-down completes will ignite tempo and trigger light boxes. Chase Brown will flash as a changeup, and his 108 yards last week hinted at balance that sustains. As the clock ticks, New York will lean heavier on Hall and boot, but the lack of true outside win rate will compress the field. The Bengals will steer New York into second-and-longs, where Fields’ 6.3 yards per attempt profile invites underneath tackles and punt-inducing scripts. The stadium will vibrate when Higgins gets isolated against depth corners, and it will rumble again when Flacco layers a hole shot into the intermediate seam.

Recent form sharpens the edge further. Flacco sits fifth in passing yards per game across his two starts and eighth in adjusted completion over that window. Higgins has stacked 18 targets over the last two games, and Chase logged 16 receptions and 161 yards last week. Even with Cincinnati’s season-long yardage rank at 31st, the current iteration looks materially different with veteran stewardship and clarified reads. On the other sideline, New York’s defense has allowed only 197.1 passing yards per game, but Gardner’s absence guts the matchup lever they rely on against alpha receivers. The Jets’ offense, meanwhile, has totaled 63 first downs all season and turned the ball over 10 times. Those possession stats ravage win expectancy as road underdogs.

The Bengals’ defense misses tackles and lets explosives rip, and Hall can carve 4.5 yards per carry into chunk plays. That case lands, but it still asks New York to stitch 10-plus play drives without Wilson’s third-down craft and without Gardner’s field-position gifts. Cincinnati also owns the fifth-lowest defensive pressure rate, which seems friendly for Fields. The problem is the Jets offensive line, which has produced the league’s highest pressure rate allowed in the files. Fields will still feel heat, and he will still need precision on money downs the offense has not shown.

We’re laying the points on the home favorites again this week. Cincy’s offense owns clear leverage against a secondary missing its ace, and the defense, while permissive, faces an opponent with 143.4 passing yards per game and a 33% third-down rate. Cincinnati’s pass rate over expectation with a lead dovetails with New York’s depleted coverage and modest pressure, and that synergy should push the hosts into the mid-20s again. New York’s ground game will hum in spurts, but sustained scoring demands intermediate precision that has not flashed. The number reflects those currents, and the files’ team-total posture supports the lay.

Final score projection: Bengals 27, Jets 17.

Best bet: Bengals -6 (-110) vs. Jets

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For a prop lean, Ja’Marr Chase 100+ receiving yards at plus money tracks the defensive attrition and usage surge. He just handled 16 receptions for 161 yards, and the offense funnels high-value looks his way when Cincinnati leads. The Jets allow 197.1 passing yards per game on the season, but that mark carries Sauce Gardner’s weight, and his absence reshapes the ceiling. Predict that Flacco will target Chase early and often, that Higgins’ recent 18-target burst will siphon coverage away, and that Chase will crest triple digits as structure and volume fuse.

Best prop lean: Ja’Marr Chase 100+ receiving yards (+140)

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