The negative outlooks for New York City’s economy are precursors to an even worse fate if the city does not change its ways: A downgrade in the city’s bond ratings. Such a downgrade would make it far more expensive for the city to gain capital, and it will scare some big investors away from doing business with the Big Apple.
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New York’s economy is a sports car — built for performance, speed, and power, with an engine generating horsepower to run most any country. But lately, the “check engine” light on the dashboard has been blinking nonstop.
That warning light comes in the form of four negative reports on the city’s finances issued by four different bond rating firms over the past two weeks. Moody’s, Fitch, S&P and KBRA all seem to agree on one key point: The city is spending too much, getting too little in return, and in a murky national economic climate, a rough road lies ahead.
The negative outlooks are precursors to an even worse fate if the city does not change its ways: A downgrade in the city’s bond ratings. Such a downgrade would make it far more expensive for the city to gain capital, and it will scare some big investors away from doing business with the Big Apple.
Despite the bitter forecasts from these bond rating firms — and agreement from City Comptroller Mark Levine, the city’s financial watchdog — the Mamdani administration has offered a most bizarre answer to them. In their view, the negative outlooks are “premature.” Why? City Hall says it’s because they’re expecting the state to swoop in and provide up to $5 billion in new revenue.
That answer is not only ignorant of the crisis before the city; it also misses the point of the negative forecasts entirely.
In his preliminary budget, Mayor Mamdani is increasing city spending from $118 billion in the current fiscal year to $127 billion in the next. The city, however, has to deal with a $7.3 billion budget gap over the next two years, and the only way Mamdani believes that gap can be filled while simultaneously increasing the budget itself is through tax increases that are not likely to happen.
“Tax the rich” plans supported by state Legislative leaders are likely to be rejected by Gov. Kathy Hochul, who has repeatedly opposed them. Mamdani’s plan B, a 9.5% property tax hike on city property owners, is also likely dead on arrival, as City Council Speaker Julie Menin has made clear that’s a non-starter, too.
Meanwhile, the warning light on the city dashboard continues to blink.
We know he campaigned on bold, billion-dollar promises to reduce costs, make buses fare-free, and so on. But running New York is not a campaign; the reality of governing is asserting itself.
The mayor must take the warnings of fiscal experts seriously and demonstrate to them that he can keep the city financially solvent — as he is obligated by law to do.
New Yorkers cannot afford to pay more. The city cannot live on credit cards. The economic engine must be overhauled. Spending within your means is not austerity.
Tough budget choices must be made; programs will need to be cut, and the cuts will not be popular. The buck stops with Mamdani, his popularity be damned.