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During a City Council hearing about Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s proposed budget for New York City’s public schools, one question came up again and again: Will school budgets take a hit next year?

It’s a question Education Department officials repeatedly sidestepped — but the answer may influence the fate of Mamdani’s first budget plan.

“There are not many individual issues that we will discuss at any of these hearings that impact our collective vote on the entire $127 billion dollar budget — that’s how important this is,” Brooklyn City Council member Lincoln Restler said during the budget hearing on Monday. “I really want to make sure we’re not in a situation where we’re seeing school budgets a day before the vote.”

As K-12 enrollment in the nation’s largest school system plunged nearly 10% over the past six years, dropping below 800,000, city officials spent $1.6 billion propping up budgets. That money staved off cuts that would typically have been automatic since school funding is typically tied to student headcount. But officials were reluctant to slash budgets while schools were scrambling to catch up students in the wake of the pandemic and the system had billions in one-time federal relief money at its disposal.

As the pandemic receded and federal funding dried up, however, it became difficult to change course. The Education Department kept school budgets relatively stable even as enrollment ticked down. This year, schools received over $388 million in various forms of relief to offset lower enrollment, the largest single-year sum since the pandemic hit.

Whether to keep school budgets steady and hold them “harmless” for enrollment declines is a politically tricky decision as the Mamdani administration has tasked city agencies to find savings to help fill a multi-billion dollar budget gap. When former Mayor Eric Adams initially began winding down the program, the blowback was so intense that City Council members later apologized for approving the city’s spending plan, and families made T-shirts declaring that Adams defunded their schools. Subsequently, Adams decided to keep propping up budgets.

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Some school funding experts and budget watchdog groups say that it makes little sense to keep allowing school budgets to drift away from enrollment, disproportionately benefiting schools that have lost the most students. It’s a problem that was top of mind for multiple city lawmakers.

“Are we funding empty seats?” asked Queens City Council member Phil Wong. “And is there a long term plan to phase this out — or this is now a permanent policy?”

But educators and parent leaders have pointed out that many schools have come to rely on the money, and abruptly cutting it could force painful cuts to programs such as after-school, art, and music. Plus, cuts are likely to invite backlash, especially as Mamdani vowed to prioritize funding for public schools on the campaign trail.

At the City Council hearing on Monday, schools Chancellor Kamar Samuels stressed that “no decision has been made on hold harmless.”

“When we think about declining enrollment, we see the impact of that across our schools and specifically many of our schools who serve the most vulnerable populations,” Samuels added. The city should be “making sure those schools are sustainable and can withstand the impact of the declining enrollment.”

The “hold harmless” funding is a small share of the more than $16 billion the Education Department spent on K-12 schools and instruction this year. But on dozens of campuses, the money represents more than 10% of their initial allocations.

Officials said preliminary school budgets would be available later this spring, potentially leaving little time for lawmakers to negotiate the issue before the June 30 deadline to pass the city budget.

Alex Zimmerman is a reporter for Chalkbeat New York, covering NYC public schools. Contact Alex at azimmerman@chalkbeat.org.