Griffin Wong breaks down his analysis, prediction, and pick for Nets at Lakers on Friday.

As the NBA winds down its regular season, there’s a four-team race for the third through sixth seeds in the Western Conference and a four-player race for Most Valuable Player, and the Los Angeles Lakers are squarely in the middle of both. In the Lakers’ remaining nine games of the season, they’ll have to hope to shore up the third seed behind some huge performances from Luka Dončić, who currently has the third-shortest MVP odds (+1200) behind Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (-500) and Victor Wembanyama (+500).

Los Angeles will have the opportunity both to pick up an easy win and for Dončić to bolster his MVP case tonight when it hosts the Brooklyn Nets at 10:40 p.m. ET. The Nets are one of the East’s three teams officially eliminated from playoff contention, though the Chicago Bulls are almost certain to join them tonight.

Dončić isn’t a guarantee to play, as he’s currently listed as questionable with hamstring soreness, but given how tight the standings are and the fact that the Lakers won’t suit up again until Monday, it would be more surprising than not if he sat. Rui Hachimura (calf) is also questionable, and Marcus Smart (ankle) and Adou Thiero (knee) are out. Meanwhile, Brooklyn’s injury list is long: Egor Dëmin (plantar fascia), Michael Porter Jr. (hamstring), Day’Ron Sharpe (thumb), and Danny Wolf (ankle) are all out.

Los Angeles is a 15.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook (-1650 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 222.5. Meanwhile, the Nets are +950 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down this matchup and offer a prediction.

Brooklyn Nets at Los Angeles Lakers preview, prediction

After making a record five first-round picks in the 2025 Draft, Brooklyn clearly has its eyes set on A.J. Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson, and Cameron Boozer, shutting down its best player, Porter. The strategy has worked, as the Nets have lost nine straight games — five of them by at least 10 points — and they’re just 2-18 since the All-Star break. Still, there’s some light at the end of the tunnel: Dëmin looked good before going down, and 19th overall pick Nolan Traoré, elevated to the starting lineup on January 29, has averaged a solid 10.5 points and 4.7 assists per game since his elevation. They’ll also get a boost tonight, as second-leading scorer Noah Clowney is expected to return after a four-game absence.

Meanwhile, the Lakers are in extremely hot form. They’ve won 10 of their last 11 games and 13 of their last 15, and in that span, Dončić is averaging 36.2 points, 8.1 rebounds, 7.4 assists, and 2.2 steals per game. Trade deadline acquisition Luke Kennard has also thrived, averaging 8.4 points per game and nailing 45.8% of his triples since joining the team, and LeBron James has embraced more of an off-ball role than he’d ever previously had in his career. Now that they’ve completed a six-game road trip, they get to head back to Crypto.com Arena, where they’ve gone 23-12 this season.

Nets at Lakers pick, best bet

Los Angeles would be a fundamentally different team if Dončić sat, given that its offense has been 5.1 points per 100 possessions better with him on the floor, but it should still have no trouble scoring against Brooklyn, which has posted the league’s eighth-worst defensive rating since the All-Star break. The Lakers should also face little trouble defensively against the Nets, even without Smart, given that Brooklyn’s offense has been 5.7 points per 100 possessions less efficient than the next-worst unit since the break. That’s an even greater difference than that between the 29th-ranked Milwaukee Bucks and the 15th-ranked Oklahoma City Thunder across that span.

But the fundamentals tell the story of a tighter game. Even amid their losing streak, the Nets should be able to mostly hang with Los Angeles inside. It’s not like Brooklyn has been great in rim protection over the last eight games (since Porter last suited up), but the Lakers — who have been notoriously poor in that aspect — have both allowed more attempts and a higher percentage at the rim. Offensively, the Nets have even been better than Los Angeles at getting to the rim, but finishing is where the two teams have diverge; in the last eight games, Brooklyn has converted its layups at a league-low 59.0% clip, while the Lakers have recorded a league-high 76.3%. Individually, of the 142 players to attempt at least 100 restricted-area shots this season, Dončić’s 81.1% accuracy leads the league, and Deandre Ayton (78.6%) ranks fifth, with Jaxson Hayes (78.0%), Austin Reaves (76.0%), and James (75.3%) all in the top 17.

Los Angeles should also win the rebounding battle, as despite not being very good on the glass in recent weeks, the Nets rank second-to-last in rebounding percentage without the six-foot-10 Porter and their jumbo guard in Dëmin, and while Dončić’s potential absence would certainly impact that, he’s averaged a career-low rebounding percentage this season regardless. Plus, the Lakers have been one of the league’s best transition teams in recent weeks, so they should be able to extend their advantage there, and they’re far more disciplined and far better at getting to the line than Brooklyn’s youngsters.

Neither team has been good at generating easy looks as of late, as the Nets have attempted the 12th-fewest wide-open threes per game since Porter went down and Los Angeles the second-fewest across the same span. The issue is that, unlike the Lakers, Brooklyn can’t shoot, knocking down its open triples at the league’s third-lowest rate across that span, and given that Dëmin and Porter were its two best high-volume three-point shooters, that might not entirely be a result of bad luck. The Nets could make up for it some on the other end of the floor, as they’ve allowed the fifth-fewest wide-open threes per game since Porter’s injury and have benefited from less shooting luck than Los Angeles, which hasn’t closed out on shooters as well as it has for much of the season.

Given each team’s available personnel and form, it seems non-sensical to pick the Nets against the spread, but the Lakers’ rim protection remains a concern and the Nets haven’t been awful at getting downhill, even though they haven’t finished well. 15.5 points is a huge line, and Los Angeles has only won 10 times by such a margin. I’ll take Brooklyn to manage an ugly back-door cover.

Best bet: Brooklyn Nets +15.5 (-108)