State lawmakers left Albany this week with little confidence the Senate and Assembly will reach an agreement with Gov. Kathy Hochul in time for the April 1 state budget deadline next Wednesday, as Hochul works to make the case to New Yorkers that her plan will make the state more affordable.
Conventional Albany wisdom has suggested that an election year will lead to something close to an on-time budget, with Hochul and lawmakers eager to leave the capital and hit the campaign trail.
While the Legislature managed to pass one of 10 budget bills Thursday — paying for the state’s debt — Democrats in the majority made clear during debate that they see no path to a deal before the scheduled break for Easter and Passover.
Senate Finance Chair Liz Krueger told fellow lawmakers it was unlikely there would be any significant movement until after Easter, and at that point it will be up to the governor to set the timetable and issue budget extenders to keep funding flowing until a deal is reached.
“If I had a crystal ball — I can assure everyone here we will not have budget bills completed before the April 1 deadline,” she said. “We are scheduled to be here Monday and Tuesday; there will not be budget bills. We are scheduled to be here the beginning of Wednesday, and there will not be budget bills.”
Hochul earlier this week hit the road on a three-city tour to sell her budget agenda to New Yorkers, painting a picture of a governor pursuing a lofty and admirable goal — if people would just get out of her way.
That is especially true when it comes to her plan to reform car insurance laws by cracking down on fraud in pursuit of lower rates, and her push to alter the state’s landmark 2019 climate law to prevent what she says will be catastrophic rate hikes if it remains as is.
“Trial attorneys are mobilizing against my changes to the laws that are jacking up our car insurance, so they’re out there. There are people who don’t recognize that the world has changed since 2019; they seem to be tone-deaf to that. I’d love to execute the climate law — I just can’t change the world from what it is. Will it be done on time? I always strive for an on-time budget. It’s due April 1, but I’m just trying to persuade people that I’m fighting for New Yorkers.”
Democratic strategist Jack O’Donnell told Spectrum News 1 that while voters in November will ultimately judge Hochul on her record on affordability — including whether insurance and utility rates continue to spike — pushing the budget for this particular slate of priorities past a statutory deadline largely confined to “Planet Albany” is unlikely to hurt her.
“I think Gov. Hochul really likes to be able to go around the state and say, ‘I’m holding up the budget because I’m fighting for you on this issue,’ ” he said. “That’s been part of her brand — the things she’s fighting for: affordability and not raising taxes. I think that she’s made the calculation that this is actually good for her.”
Additionally, even if the Legislature puts up a moderate fight now, ultimately the Senate and Assembly will sign off on the final deal and be free to use any gains on affordability to their campaigning advantage.
“If everybody agrees to it, nobody is the one fighting it,” he said.
Republican columnist and political analyst Bill O’Reilly, a partner at The November Team, agreed that Hochul is playing her hand well, especially as she resists another sticky issue: a proposed tax hike from the Senate and Assembly.
“Politically, she wields a cudgel for the election, where it appears that she’s out there fighting for the middle-class family, and that’s what she’s trying to pull off — and it’s a pretty masterful stroke,” he said. “With Mayor Mamdani and others, she gets to look like the moderate. That’s the key thing. They’ve called for more spending, and the longer she holds out, the better she does with the electorate she needs — those in the middle. She’ll catch a little flak on the left, but she doesn’t have a primary, and she’s not going to get one.”
O’Reilly said that to gain ground on Hochul, Republican opponent Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman will need to work hard to persuade voters that Democrats — in control of the governor’s mansion since 2007 and both houses of the state Legislature since 2019 — have a lot of nerve running on an agenda that seeks to solve a problem that escalated on their watch.
“Bruce Blakeman has a good opportunity to belittle the governor on the affordability message,” he said. “He could build an entire campaign around the fact that that’s an absurd campaign platform for the Democrats.”
Despite the accolades for Hochul’s strategy, the Legislature is getting antsy.
After session broke Thursday, Deputy Senate Majority Leader Mike Gianaris took questions from reporters and said lawmakers are hung up specifically on car insurance and the proposed climate law changes.
“We’re focused more on the CLCPA and the auto insurance stuff, which has significant concerns from our members,” he said, adding that everyone is at least on the same page in striving for an agenda that prioritizes affordability. “It’s the budget process. We’ve all been through this before. The governor insists, we’ll try to do what we can to come out with a product that works and addresses the issues that everyone wants to address.”
Hochul is proposing a slate of measures intended to cut down on staged car accidents and other sources of fraud and abuse, while limiting damages for parties who are at fault, among other proposals.
As Hochul mentioned, her plan is heavily opposed by the state’s powerful trial lawyers — but Gianaris said the resistance among members comes from a lack of confidence that Hochul’s proposals will actually address affordability.
“The remedy is disconnected from the goal. If we’re talking about making auto insurance more affordable, the data does not support that fraud is a driver of cost. Fraud is an incredibly small part of the cost,” he said. “Some of the solutions that are being advanced might encourage insurance companies to claim fraud on just about every claim because that would allow them to withhold payments.”
The New York State Trial Lawyers Association has fired back over Hochul’s attempt to put its lobbying on blast in recent weeks.
“The governor’s so-called affordability plan to dismantle New Yorkers’ auto insurance protections is backed by millions in lobbying dollars from insurance companies and Uber, the primary beneficiaries. It is a smokescreen that will slam courthouse doors shut for innocent victims of traffic accidents while funneling even greater profits into those companies’ coffers,” said Andrew Finkelstein, president of the New York State Trial Lawyers Association.
In a statement, Hochul’s office doubled down on her strategy.
“The data is clear: fake claims, phony or exaggerated injury reports and legal system abuses cost hardworking New Yorkers and take money out of their pockets. The numbers don’t lie, and anyone suggesting that fraud isn’t driving up auto insurance rates is ignoring reality. Governor Hochul will continue working to hold bad actors accountable and drive costs down,” a spokesperson said.
When it comes to the environmental issue, Gianaris said there is “significant opposition” to some of the governor’s ideas, especially when it comes to the climate law, but agreement that sky-high rates need to be addressed.
“When you’re talking about making utility bills more affordable, changing the CLCPA timeline or barometers will do nothing to lower people’s bills because it isn’t in effect yet,” he said. “If there’s something about a court order that is impossible to meet and we need to make some adjustments to do that, we’re reasonable about that — but let’s make sure the solution matches the problem.”
Defending her proposed changes to the climate law played a major role in Hochul’s midweek press tour.
“I think if they understood where my heart is and what I’m trying to do in a very changed world, they would be supporting our changes, which are just to give us more time,” she said of those who are opposed. “A judge is forcing those changes. The only way I can avoid imposing those is to get the Legislature to act now. I think everybody should be telling their legislators: follow the governor’s lead.”