New York City, they say it never sleeps, but lately, it seems to be dozing off a bit. The lure of steel and neon hasn’t faded entirely, but the buzz has definitely quieted down some. Remember how in 2024, 13 million international visitors flooded the streets, painting them with a vibrant, post-pandemic energy? Well, as leaves fall and the air gets crisper in October of 2025, a slightly different tune plays.

The tour buses aren’t quite as packed, Broadway houses have a few more empty seats, and forecasts… well, they’re hinting at a potentially worrying 17% dip in overseas arrivals for the year. A drop in tourist number that heavy hasn’t been seen since the ’08 crash. What gives? It seems that a cocktail of rising costs, trade friction, and maybe a slightly dented global image under President Trump’s watch has left the Big Apple feeling a little… bruised. Experts are throwing around words like “hemorrhage,” projecting a possible $4 billion hit to the economy. Still, like always, New York City is looking ahead and betting big on the 2026 FIFA World Cup to bring back the crowds.

A City Sensing the Slowdown

The streets? Notably quieter. Those iconic red double-decker buses, remember them crammed with selfie sticks and folks from all over? Now you might see a few more locals or just a handful of tourists determined to make the most of it. Even Times Square, that wild mix of ads and people, is operating at a lower volume. The lights still shine bright, sure, but the sheer number of feet hitting the pavement has definitely decreased. Total visitors in 2024 topped out around 67 million people. Cut to 2025, though, and the projections look more sobering: 64.1 million is the new estimate. And when you zero in on international visitors – the ones who really spend those big bucks, like two grand a trip or more – the tourist numbers shrink to 12.1 million, a hefty 17% below initial guesses.

Tariffs, Tensions, and a Tarnished Star-Spangled Banner

The problems are not localized. Figures are dropping nation-wide. U.S. international arrivals might slide down to 67.9 million this year from 72.4 million in 2024, which could mean job losses from Hawaii to New York. Little guys are feeling the burn. Javiar Ruiz, who’s been running a coffee cart near the Flatiron for a long time, put it simply: “Those Trump taxes have bumped up prices. Anybody that gets goods from abroad, they pay more.” He gestures to his coffee urn. Last year, you could get your caffeine fix for $3, but now it’s $5—which might not sound like much, but it adds up, and budget travelers notice. It’s a little example of a larger issue: everyday expenses inflated up 25% by import taxes. All of a sudden, New York isn’t as cheap as it used to be, and tourists are having second thoughts.

To really get to the heart of the matter, you have to zoom out a little. Inflation is already a headache, but it’s arguably made worse by those trade wars. Adding an extra 10-20% to the cost of European wines or Asian gadgets makes everything from hotel rooms to restaurant meals more expensive. That spending by visitors from the biggest markets is starting to drop: once a major spender, Canada has fallen to tenth place, causing $200 million in losses, and France and the UK are going down the same road. However, it’s not just money; its feelings.

According to Gail Morse, who’s been a volunteer guide with Big Apple Greeters for years, “There’s less excitement.” She mentions that tour requests are down 26% in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024—with a big 39% dive just from Europeans. There’s a feeling of 2008 creeping in; economic slowdown keeping visitors at home. Now, it’s also those fiery social media posts; calling allies freeloaders, bringing back travel bans, and visa wait times stretching to 400 days for some, all creating invisible obstacles. TUI, a big tour company in Europe, says U.S.-EU tensions and strict border controls are making people hesitate, causing transatlantic bookings to decrease by almost 5%. As a Berlin blogger put it in a thread that got a lot of attention, “Why go somewhere where it feels like they don’t want you?” From ‘welcome mat’ to a sort of ‘welcome-backlash,’ the consequences are significant. Projections suggest a $29 billion hit nationally for tourism, with New York potentially losing up to $6 billion. This loss ripples through various sectors, impacting approximately 400,000 jobs in hotels, theaters, and even taxi services. Oxford Economics’ March data already indicated inbound travel was lagging 15% behind projections, a trend experts worry will persist without policy changes.

The World Cup Wild Card and Global Charm Offensive

However, New Yorkers have a knack for reinventing themselves. As winter 2025 approaches, bringing a potential slowdown, the city is planning its resurgence around the 2026 FIFA World Cup. This month-long global event will see key matches, including a knockout round, hosted at MetLife Stadium in nearby East Rutherford. Forecasts anticipate a $3.3 billion boost to the NY-NJ economy: half a million visitors, ten thousand new jobs, plus lasting upgrades to transit and fan areas. Airbnb’s commitment of $1 million to a community fund, and mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani’s proposal for a “World Cup Czar” highlight the significance of turning this event into a major success.

In addition to the soccer excitement, NYC Tourism + Conventions recently introduced “Where the World Comes to Play”—a multilingual marketing campaign spanning 20 countries, from Tokyo to Toronto. This blends World Cup excitement with perennial attractions like hidden speakeasies and impressive city views. The $50 million campaign aims to attract Europeans with expedited visa processes and tariff-free travel packages, while also targeting the growing middle class in Asia. Official guides are already mapping fan zones in Bryant Park and shuttle routes from JFK for match days, effectively positioning the Cup as an opportunity to rehabilitate the city’s image.

Can the Apple Bite Back? A Tale of Two Tomorrows

As 2025 continues, New York faces a critical juncture: either succumb to isolationist sentiments and experience a continued decline in tourism, or capitalize on the universal appeal of the World Cup to restore its global reputation. The economic realities are stark—a 25% drop in international visitors could put 100,000 borough jobs at risk—but the city’s spirit remains strong. From people like Morse, who continue to showcase the city’s essence amidst the statistics, to local businesses building resilience one cup at a time, the Big Apple perseveres.

Historically, New York has shown remarkable resilience. Following 9/11, it recovered from devastation to achieve record tourist numbers; after the 2008 crisis, it navigated the economic downturn. The 2026 World Cup could signal the start of a new chapter. Until then, visitors may find the city quieter than usual, but the dream is still alive.