Gov. Kathy Hochul’s lead over Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman has narrowed in the past month.
Darren McGee/Darren McGee/ Office of Governor
Blakeman picked up support from independent voters and even some Democrats.
Will Waldron/Times Union
Blakeman also picked up support in New York City, where Hochul lost favor with some voters.
Jim Franco/Times Union
Hochul is still in a strong position to be reelected in November if the gap doesn’t tighten.
Alexander MacDougall/Times Union
Blakeman is already closer to defeating Hochul than her former rival, Lee Zeldin, was in August 2022.
Mark Schiefelbein/Associated Press
ALBANY — Gov. Kathy Hochul’s lead over Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman in this year’s gubernatorial race narrowed by 7 points over the past month, according to a new Siena Research Institute poll released Tuesday.
Blakeman, a Republican, remains largely unknown to the greater electorate, the poll found. But in a head-to-head matchup, 34% of registered voters said they prefer him over Hochul, who maintained a commanding 47% lead.
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“We’re closing the gap at lightning speed because New Yorkers need real relief from Kathy Hochul’s cost of living crisis, and they’ll get it with my plan to cut income taxes, slash utility bills in half, and make New York affordable,” Blakeman said in a statement.
Hochul campaign spokesman Ryan Radulovacki said in a statement that a mix of the governor’s accomplishments and Blakeman’s close relationship with President Donald J. Trump have fueled her continuing lead in this year’s race.
“Every day, Kathy Hochul is delivering for New Yorkers — lowering costs, investing billions to keep families safe, and standing up to Donald Trump — while Bruce Blakeman is offering the opposite: higher prices, Medicaid cuts, and letting Trump’s ICE trample on New Yorkers’ rights. That’s how you become a six-time loser, and it’s why Blakeman is being rejected again.”
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Support for Hochul and Blakeman among voters in their respective parties remained relatively unchanged compared to a Siena poll conducted last month.
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“Interestingly, Hochul’s standing with New Yorkers is essentially the same as last month — a small plurality views her favorably, and a small majority approves of the job she’s doing as governor — as is Blakeman’s, yet the race between the two has tightened a little,” said Siena pollster Steven Greenberg.
It was independent voters that helped give Blakeman a boost in recent weeks. While Hochul had support from 40% of independent voters last month, that dropped to 32% in the poll released Tuesday.
The opposite was true for Blakeman, whose numbers grew slightly with Democrats as well, according to the poll.
That could be the result of more voters getting to know Blakeman, who’s run a digital-heavy but relatively muted in-person campaign since becoming his party’s designated nominee for governor at the GOP convention in February.
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Another shift observed in the poll was in New York City, where Hochul lost support over the last month. While she still led the region with 54% of voters, that was 9 points lower than what was previously recorded.
“Is that movement or merely noise?” Greenberg said. “Let’s see what happens next month after the budget and as the campaign unfolds.”
That’s another area where Blakeman picked up support, with 25% of voters choosing him. Republicans in New York generally estimate they can’t win a statewide race without 30% of the vote in New York City.
Hochul is still in a strong position to secure her second full term in office if the results of the poll reflect the sentiment of voters in November. That doesn’t mean it’s a sure bet.
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While Hochul has a 13-point lead over Blakeman, several months remain for him to close that gap.
It’s already narrower than the lead she held over her former political rival, then-U.S. Rep. Lee Zeldin, in August 2022. Zeldin, who’s now the head of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, was 14 points behind Hochul at the time.
Hochul defeated Zeldin that year but her margin of victory — less than 7 points — was the smallest in a race for New York governor since 1994.
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