Bill Yin breaks down his prediction and pick for tonight’s game between the Brooklyn Nets and Indiana Pacers.

The 20-59 Nets will host the 18-61 Pacers tonight at 7:30 PM EST. The injury report for both of these teams is as long as their list of L’s this season.

The Pacers are 3.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook with the total for this game set at 224.5 points.

Nets vs. Pacers prediction, preview

Indiana is still the more recognizable offensive team, even after the roster got stripped down. The Pacers are 18-61 and have lost three straight, but the way they try to play has not changed. They move the ball, get into the next action quickly, and avoid turning every trip into one guy freelancing. Indiana is averaging 27.5 assists per game, which is comfortably ahead of Brooklyn. The Pacers are seventh in assist percentage and eighth in pace. The weak spots are just as obvious. Indiana is allowing 120.8 PPG, 55.5 opponent points in the paint, and 55.9 RPG, so the defense has been getting dented at the rim and on the glass all season. The injury report is ghastly tonight: Tyrese Haliburton, Pascal Siakam, T.J. McConnell, Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith and Ivica Zubac are out, with Kobe Brown, Ben Sheppard and Jarace Walker questionable. The Pacers are down to lineups where Ethan Thompson just led them with 17 points against Minnesota and Jalen Slawson got real minutes. Yikes. Indiana still passes better than Brooklyn, but this duct taped roster is difficult to watch.

Brooklyn is thinner too, but the Nets at least come in with a little more recent life. They are 20-59, have won two straight and three of their last five, and the last two wins came over Washington and Milwaukee. The shape of their season is pretty blunt. Brooklyn’s scoring 106.1 PPG, generating 44.2 points in the paint and 12.4 fastbreak points, while allowing 115.5 points and 16.8 opponent fastbreak points. This is an offense that’s run on improvisation and desperation. The one encouraging number is assist percentage. Brooklyn ranks eighth there, which fits a team that still moves the ball even when the talent level on the floor is uneven. The problem tonight is the frontcourt and wing depth. Nic Claxton, Noah Clowney, Day’Ron Sharpe, Michael Porter Jr., Ziaire Williams, Terance Mann, Egor Demin, Nolan Traore, Josh Minott, and Danny Wolf are all out. Jordi Fernandez is again down to replacement-level combinations. E.J. Liddell just scored a career-high 21 against Milwaukee, Ben Saraf had 19, and Malachi Smith has done enough in a short sample to earn a multi-year deal.

Nets vs. Pacers pick, best Bet

Best Bet: Brooklyn Nets +3.5 (-108)

This is an ugly matchup and I’m counting on Brooklyn to cover the spread tonight during this tank-off even though they’re probably still the worse team. Indiana has cleaner offensive habits, but Brooklyn is simply missing so much size that there’s just no margin for them to withstand Indiana’s broken offense.