Republican Curtis Sliwa (left), Democratic mayoral nominee Zohran Mamdani, and independent former Gov. Andrew Cuomo.
Photo by Lloyd Mitchell
With five voting days remaining and a heavy turnout in early voting showing encouraging signs for Andrew Cuomo, the latest Quinnipiac University poll released on Wednesday indicated a slightly tightening race, with the frontrunner, Zohran Mamdani, losing votes while the number of undecided voters increases.
The poll of 911 likely New York City voters, conducted from Oct. 23 to 27, found that Mamdani lost three percentage points since its last survey on Oct. 9 — dropping to 43% from 46%. Cuomo’s support remained steady between the two polls, at 33%, but he’s now within 10 points of Mamdani. Republican Curtis Sliwa, meanwhile, lost one point, dropping from 15% to 14%.
The new poll, which has a +/- 4% margin of error, found that 6% of voters are undecided; that’s double from the 3% who said they were undecided in the previous Quinnipiac poll. Three percent refused to respond, compared to 2% who did the same in the previous survey.
Wednesday’s Quinnipiac poll results were consistent with a Monday Suffolk University survey that also showed Cuomo within 10 points of Mamdani.
“The candidates have made their case, early voting is underway, Zohran Mamdani has a 10-point lead over Andrew Cuomo with Curtis Sliwa a distant third, but one wildcard remains,” said Mary Snow, Quinnipiac University Poll assistant director, in a statement.
“The percentage of likely voters not weighing in has increased a bit since earlier this month, suggesting there’s room for movement in the final stretch,” she added.
Cuomo saw big gains in Quinnipiac’s previous survey, the first the pollster conducted since incumbent Mayor Eric Adams suspended his campaign late last month.
‘The race is tightening,’ Cuomo rep says
Cuomo spokesperson Rich Azzopardi said the poll shows, “the race is tightening, and Andrew Cuomo is closing in fast.”
“This is the second poll in a week showing Zohran Mamdani stuck below 45% of the vote,” he said, referring to the Suffolk poll. “The momentum is with Andrew Cuomo — and it’s only growing every day.”
The latest survey shows Mamdani comfortably ahead of Cuomo amongst Democratic voters — by 59% to 31%. Mamdani is a democratic socialist Queens state lawmaker.
However, Cuomo, who has been courting GOP voters, holds a slight lead over Sliwa with Republicans — 45% to 44%. Mamani and Cuomo are polling the same amongst Independents — 34%, while 18% of them back Sliwa.
“Zohran’s going to take his message to every single voter because every New Yorker deserves a city they can afford,” Mamdani’s spokesperson Dora Pekec said in a statement. “Now is not the time to be complacent.”
The Queens lawmaker also holds an edge when it comes to voter enthusiasm, with 45% viewing him favorably, compared to 41% who view him unfavorably. By contrast, only 34% of voters see Cuomo favorably, while 54% do not.
Sliwa’s campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
The generation gap
Mamdani continues to lead among younger voters, while Cuomo performs better with older voters.
The Democratic nominee, 34, is ahead of Cuomo, 67, with voters aged 18 to 34 by 64% to 20% and 35 to 49 by 50% to 25%. On the other hand, Cuomo leads among voters aged 50 to 64 by 41% to 35% and those 65 and older by 39% to 33%.
“Mamdani is the clear favorite among younger voters while the race is much closer among voters 50 and over as Cuomo and Sliwa fare better among older voters,” Snow said.
A plurality of early voters so far are those 61 and older, according to unofficial city Board of Elections early voting data, as reported by amNewYork. Azzopardi said that is good for Cuomo.
“Most importantly – older voters are breaking hard for Cuomo, and they’re the ones showing up early,” Azzopardi said.