Hochul keeps strong lead in governor’s race

New York Gov. Kathy Hochul’s favorability and approval rating both dipped, but her lead over Republican gubernatorial candidate Bruce Blakeman grew slightly in the latest Siena University poll of registered voters released on Tuesday.

As Hochul seeks a second full term as governor, her favorability rating sits at 41-46%, according to the poll, which is down from 45-44% in March. It marks her lowest favorability rating since June 2025. Hochul’s job approval rating also fell from 52-40% in March to 48-44%, her lowest job approval rating since April 2025.

It comes as the state’s budget is now more than a month past the deadline.

“Is it the late state budget? Is it something the governor has said or done? Hard to say, but either way, Hochul heads into a campaign – with an election 26 weeks from today – with her lowest favorability and job approval ratings in about a year,” Siena pollster Steven Greenberg said in a statement. “Both Hochul’s favorability and approval ratings fell the most in the last month with independents, men and voters from New York City. While she continues to be in positive territory on both measures in New York City, she has fallen even deeper underwater with independents.”

According to the poll, Hochul holds a 16-point lead over Blakeman, 49-33%, up three points from 47-34% in March.

Blakeman, the Nassau County executive, still faces a recognition problem among possible voters. Sixty-four percent of New Yorkers polled said they have either not heard of him or have no opinion, though those numbers did move up three points in the last month to 49-33%.

“Six months out, voters are largely in their partisan lanes,” Greenberg said. “Three-quarters of Democrats are with Hochul. Three-quarters of Republicans are with Blakeman. And independents tilt toward Blakeman by two points, down from seven points in March. Hochul leads by 34 points in New York City and by a handful of points outside of the city.”

Participants were also asked if they believe New York state and the United States are on the right track or headed in the wrong direction.

“Democrats, by a 61-22% margin, say New York’s best days are ahead of us, while a plurality of Republicans, 45-32%, says our best days are behind us. Independents are nearly evenly divided,” Greenberg said. “A majority of New York City voters and a plurality of upstaters say our best days are to come, while downstate suburbanites are evenly divided.”

Thirty-six percent of voters said the state does not spend enough money on healthcare, education, infrastructure and other programs, while 29% said the state spends the right amount, and 22% say the state spends too much.

As for the direction of the nation, pollsters found that strong majorities of New Yorkers, including overwhelming majorities of Democrats, think the country is headed in the wrong direction on seven major issues. This includes making prices more affordable, creating opportunity and improving America’s standing in the world.

“Republicans disagree and think America is on the right track on five of the issues, but they are closely divided on AI, and they agree with Democrats on making prices more affordable,” Greenberg said. “Majorities of independents think the country is headed in the wrong direction on six of the issues, but they are closely divided on enforcing immigration policies.”

When it comes to President Donald Trump, his favorability rating came in at 33-64%, the lowest of his second term. His job approval rating of 34-64% is also down from 37-61% in March.

“The drop in Trump’s favorability and job approval ratings is not because of Democrats; they overwhelmingly continue to view Trump unfavorably and strongly disapprove of the job he’s doing. It’s not the independents, with whom his negative numbers improved slightly,” Greenberg said. “No, it’s Republicans. His favorability rating among Republicans is down to 65-27%, from 78-18%, and his job approval rating is down to 71-27%, from 84-15%.”

New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani has a 56-34% favorability rating in New York City, and 43-40% for voters statewide, down slightly from 44-37% in March. His rating in the city remains higher than Hochul, 46-37%, Attorney General Letitia James, 49-24% and U.S. Sen. Chuck Schumer, 37-45%.

New Yorkers view Pope Leo XIV positively, though his 55-19% favorability rating as he approaches the first anniversary of his papacy is not nearly as high as the 73-11% favorability rating Pope Francis garnered two years into his own papacy in 2015.

“America’s Pope is viewed favorably by two-thirds of Democrats, 66-15%, and pluralities of Republicans, 43-27%, and independents, 45-19%. In 2015, Pope Francis was viewed favorably by at least 70% of Democrats, Republicans and independents,” Greenberg said. “New York Catholics view Pope Leo favorably, 62-18%, although they viewed Pope Francis favorably, 83-6%. It is still early in the papacy of the Chicago native, but it seems that even the Pope is not immune to being viewed through the prism of America’s current political winds.”

The poll was conducted April 27-30 among 806 registered New York voters and has an overall margin of error of +/- 4.2 percentage points.