A new poll shows Democratic mayoral front-runner Zohran Mamdani holding a sizable 25% lead over his main opponent, independent candidate Andrew Cuomo.

The poll, released early Thursday by Emerson College, PIX11 and The Hill, is an outlier from most other surveys, which have shown Mamdani leading Cuomo by between 10 and 16% in next week’s mayoral election.

Conducted between this past Saturday and Monday, it shows Mamadani clinching 50% compared to 25% secured by Cuomo. Republican mayoral nominee Curtis Sliwa, who has consistently ranked third and last in the race, nets 21% support, with another 5% of voters undecided, the new survey finds.

In addition to putting Mamdani far ahead of Cuomo, the poll marks one of the first predicting that the Democratic nominee would attract support from at least half of voters participating in Tuesday’s election.

By contrast, the last Emerson/PIX11/The Hill poll from Sept. 10 showed Mamdani leading the race with 43% support, compared to Cuomo at 28% and Sliwa at 10%.

Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said Mamdani’s surge and Cuomo’s setback in the latest survey can in part be attributed to the opinions of Black voters.

“Mamdani appears to have built a coalition across key demographics, increasing his margin among Black voters since last month, from 50% to 71%, whereas Cuomo dropped ten points among Black voters since September,” Kimball said. “Mamdani continues to have a base of young voters; 69% of voters under 50 support him, whereas 37% of voters over 50 support Mamdani, while 31% support Cuomo and 28% Silwa.”

Emerson’s latest inquiry lands as hundreds of thousands of New Yorkers have already cast ballots in the high-stakes 2025 contest for City Hall. Early voting started Saturday, and more than 370,000 voters had cast ballots as of Wednesday night.

The poll, which has a margin of error of +/- 3.8%, asked a total of 640 New Yorkers who had either already voted or were very likely to. Those quizzed who had already voted supported Mamdani by a 33-point margin, 58% to 25%, while those who had yet to cast their ballots broke for Mamdani by a 19-point margin, 45% to 26%, per the poll.