NEW YORK CITY (PIX11) — Democratic nominee for mayor of New York City Zohran Mamdani holds a 25-point lead in the race with just days left until Election Day, according to new exclusive polling from PIX11, Emerson College Polling, and The Hill.
Mamdani, a Democratic Socialist Assemblyman for Queens, is the choice of a little less than 50% of New York City voters surveyed. Former Gov. Andrew Cuomo — running as an independent after losing to Mamdani in the Democratic Primary — is at 25%, and Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa is at 21%.
If the poll is reflective of the outcome on Election Day, it would mark a stunning political rise for the once little-known 34-year-old assemblyman, who is making big promises of free buses, universal childcare, and rent freezes. He would be the youngest mayor since Hugh Grant assumed office in 1889 at age 31. Mamdani would also be the city’s first Muslim mayor and the first immigrant mayor in modern times.
Early voting so far has been significantly higher than it was four years ago, when New Yorkers elected Eric Adams as the 110th mayor. Turnout has been roughly five times higher than in 2021. Initial data from the NYC Board of Elections indicates that those voting are older than the cohort of voters who delivered Mamdani’s primary victory in June.
However, the new PIX11 Poll indicates that Mamdani has strength even among New Yorkers over 50. Mamdani is the choice of 37% of surveyed voters over 50, with Cuomo at 31% and Sliwa at 28%.
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In the broader context of other recent polls, Emerson’s survey found the race getting less competitive toward Election Day— as opposed to a Quinnipiac poll release Tuesday that showed Cuomo trailing by 10 points: Mamdani was at 43% in that survey with Cuomo at 33% and Sliwa at 14%.
“Mamdani appears to have built a coalition across key demographics, increasing his margin among Black voters since last month, from 50% to 71%, whereas Cuomo dropped ten points among Black voters since September,” said Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling.
The latest poll numbers come despite Cuomo recently securing the support of Mayor Eric Adams, the city’s second Black mayor, and David Paterson, New York’s first Black governor.
In a statement, Cuomo spokesman Rich Azzopardi told PIX11 News, “For weeks this has been a tightening race with early voting showing a surge of older voters — the exact inverse of the primary — with turnout on track for between 1.9 and 2 million. With those dynamics, every poll out there is essentially meaningless from this point out.”
Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 4.
Methodology:
The Emerson College Polling New York City survey was conducted October 25-27, 2025. The overall sample of NYC very likely voters/those who have already voted, n=640, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3.8 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party registration, previous vote history, and region based on U.S. Census parameters and voter file data.
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