Knicks-Spurs NBA Finals mega-preview: Predictions, odds, must-reads and more

The NBA Finals matchup is officially set. And storylines abound.

The long-suffering New York Knicks, seeking their first title since 1973, versus the fast-maturing San Antonio Spurs, who look poised to launch yet another dynasty in South Texas.

The close-knit ‘Nova Knicks, captained by Jalen Brunson, versus the league’s future (and present?) in Victor Wembanyama.

The NBA’s largest media market versus its fifth-smallest. A rematch of the 1999 finals.

Here is everything you need to know, including predictions from our writers and our best reads heading into the series.

What you need to know about the matchup

No. 2 San Antonio Spurs (62-20) vs. No. 3 New York Knicks (53-29)

Knicks’ path: Beat No. 6 Atlanta, 4-2; beat No. 7 Philadelphia, 4-0; beat No. 4 Cleveland, 4-0
Spurs’ path: Beat No. 7 Portland, 4-1; beat No. 6 Minnesota, 4-2; beat No. 1 Oklahoma City, 4-3

Staff predictions

We asked The Athletic NBA writers to make the call on the series result and MVP.

NBA champion: Knicks in 6 (10 out of 26 votes)
Runners-up: Spurs in 7 (5 votes), Spurs in 6 (5), Knicks in 7 (3)

Finals MVP: Jalen Brunson (12 out of 25 votes)
Runners-up: Victor Wembanyama (11), Karl-Anthony Towns (3)

Odds: Despite an 11-game win streak and covering the spread in 10 of their last 11 games, the New York Knicks are heading into the NBA Finals as underdogs.

DraftKings sportsbook opened the San Antonio Spurs as -220 favorites, or implied odds of 68.75 percent, to win it all. The Knicks are +180 to win. Which means if you bet $100 on New York to win the title, and it did, you would win $180.

New York is also currently a 4.5-point underdog in Game 1.

The Knicks are in the NBA Finals because …

James L. Edwards III, Knicks writer: New York has found a synergy in these playoffs that was consistently absent the last two regular seasons.

The shot-making and ball movement has been superb. The defense is on a string, and everyone is committed. Offensively, New York leads all playoff teams in field goal percentage, 3-point percentage and assists. Defensively, the Knicks have the best rating of any playoff teams at 103.5.

Everything is clicking for New York at the right time.

Being in the Eastern Conference helps, too. The Knicks played two fringe playoff teams in the first two rounds and then a Cavaliers team that played 14 playoff games before reaching the conference finals. That’s not New York’s fault, though. The Knicks can only play who is in front of them — and they’ve dominated every challenger dating to Game 4 of the first round.

The Spurs are in the NBA Finals because …

Jared Weiss, Spurs writer: They gained true playoff experience battling the Thunder and had just enough talent to buy the time to figure it out.

Half of it was Wembanyama finding the mentality to just combat the Thunder’s physicality and adjustments to own his space. Then there were the guards finding their way through the tangled web of Thunder defenders while figuring out at the other end how to not fall into the foul trap Shai Gilgeous-Alexander laid for them.

If the Knicks win the title, it will be because …

Edwards: The superb defense seen throughout these playoffs is able to stifle a young, streaky-shooting team that just had a bloodbath series in the Western Conference finals. The Spurs will make the Knicks offense look normal, which hasn’t been the case all postseason. However, the Knicks have the ability to do the same on the other end while still manufacturing enough points.

If the Spurs win the title, it will be because …

Weiss: Wembanyama became a downhill force on offense, and the Knicks’ wing size didn’t overwhelm San Antonio’s dribble penetration. The Knicks present similar problems to the Thunder in a different form, but they have more defensive vulnerabilities. Can the Spurs exploit them? Probably.

If the Knicks lose this series, it will be because …

Edwards: The Spurs defense not only stalls the New York offense but also is able to create easy offense from the work defensively. The Spurs are beatable when they’re neutralized to a half-court game, but allowing them to get into transition and a rhythm will be hard to deal with for any team.

If the Spurs lose this series, it will be because …

Weiss: Jalen Brunson had an all-time shooting series, Karl Anthony-Towns bulldozed through Wembanyama driving from the perimeter, and the Spurs couldn’t create open looks from deep. It seems unlikely all of these things will happen consistently enough for the Knicks to win the series, but New York is playing on a string right now, and this series should be competitive.

Series schedule and TV information
Game 1 in San Antonio: June 3, 8:30 p.m. ET on ABC
Game 2 in San Antonio: June 5, 8:30 p.m. ET on ABC
Game 3 in New York: June 8, 8:30 p.m. ET on ABC
Game 4 in New York: June 10, 8:30 p.m. ET on ABC
Game 5 in San Antonio: June 13, 8:30 p.m. ET on ABC (if necessary)
Game 6 in New York: June 16, 8:30 p.m. ET on ABC (if necessary)
Game 7 in San Antonio: June 19, 8:30 p.m. ET on ABC (if necessary)
Essential reading

A handful of must-reads on both teams from The Athletic staff.

Knicks

+ The journey to this moment — with all of New York spellbound by a basketball team that rarely loses anymore — began years ago. Before the Knicks tore through the Eastern Conference with blowout after blowout. Before the trades for Towns, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby and Josh Hart. Before the team’s captain, Brunson, ever arrived. The Knicks — the same clumsy team that tripped over itself for most of this century — are going to the finals for the first time since 1999. How did this happen? (Read more from Fred Katz)

+ Sometimes, the most important moves are the ones you don’t make. A month ago, entering Game 4 of their first-round series against Atlanta, the Knicks seemed like they were ready to reshuffle their starting lineup to save their season. Instead, coach Mike Brown kept the lineup the same, relied on the “play better” adjustment … and caught lightning in a bottle. (Read more from John Hollinger)

+ Towns’ biggest fan? The mother of a Marine killed in Afghanistan. Kathleen Reinhard didn’t know who Towns was on that winter morning inside St. Agnes Church in Clark, N.J. But she noticed the 6-foot-10 high school freshman, just like everyone else did. (Read more from Ian O’Connor)

+ Knicks owner James Dolan made it very clear back in January what had to happen for his franchise to avoid a major overhaul. “Yeah, we want to get to the finals, and we should win the finals,” said Dolan, 70, in a Jan. 5 radio interview. The Knicks have pulled off the first part. “Better get to the finals, or we’re going to get traded,” Hart joked when asked about Dolan’s comments. “It wasn’t pressure, because that’s the goal we have.” (Read more from James L. Edwards III)

+ How did the Knicks get good? With one total reinvention. This version of Towns is more in line with the one head coach Mike Brown tried to create early in the season, but who could not get comfortable as the hopeful hub of the offense. Towns now has adopted this style and been one of the best players in the playoffs. (Read more from Fred Katz)

+ Bridges’ short trek from Brooklyn to Manhattan two summers ago initiated arguments that got as heated as subway platforms in July. The Knicks traded five first-round picks and more to the cross-town rival Nets to acquire Bridges, a reliable NBA wing without an All-Star Game to his name. Many saw it as a significant overpay for someone of his stature. Now it looks like a stroke of genius. (Read more from James L. Edwards III)

+ Whoever claims they prophesied Brunson would be this good is lying. The Knicks were indeed searching for a messiah of basketball’s Mecca. They were desperate for a spectacle worthy of Broadway, for Madison Square Garden to again become the Knicks’ home court and not merely a stage for the visiting elite. For decades, they chased stardom, hunting for a return to relevance. But the star for which New York basketball thirsted arrived in July 2022. A maybe-6-foot guard didn’t appease the Knicks’ appetite for magnitude. (Read more from James L. Edwards III)

Spurs

+ This season, Wembanyama personally introduced a full-fledged concept for the first true ultra fan section in the NBA, modeled after the Paris Saint-Germain Football Club supporters he admired as a kid growing up in France. It is a members-only section that stands all night long, banging drums and singing songs to build a European arena atmosphere that does not exist in the NBA. As the young Spurs, led by Wembanyama, put together a 62-20 season, the section has become more than a group of loud fans. It’s a source of civic pride. And Wemby guided the project every step of the way. (Read more from Jared Weiss)

+ When The Athletic asked Weiss to move to San Antonio from Boston this season to be on the ground with Wembanyama and the Spurs every day, the goal was to peel back the layers of the most captivating up-and-coming athlete on the planet and humanize the man known as “The Alien.” Here’s what Weiss learned about the NBA’s next big thing. (Read more from Jared Weiss)

+ In January, Wembanyama performed a mind-boggling feat: He kicked some basketballs out of the net with his opposite foot still on the ground. In all likelihood, he is the first human being to do this — at least, the first we’ve seen on film. Players with the requisite length rarely come close to the desired flexibility to make this even remotely possible. But the backstory of that moment is even more impressive than the kick itself. (Read more from Jared Weiss)

+ There’s a common theme from everyone on the Spurs who has been mentored by Gregg Popovich this season in his new role after he retired from coaching last year. He is formally listed as the president of basketball operations, but his role appears to be focused on providing behind-the-scenes support and guidance to Mitch Johnson, his successor, and everyone in the locker room. “He’s been a big part of this whole year,” rookie Carter Bryant said. “Not everybody has the greatest coach of all time just kind of sitting there in their laps.” (Read more from Jared Weiss)

+ Rookie Dylan Harper doesn’t move slowly. But he doesn’t mash on the gas pedal either, even in transition. He moves with a patient rhythm. He bounces as he dribbles, like a deep breath with each pound, because a burst can come at any moment. It’s a cadence of confidence. And he’s making the Spurs’ future look even brighter. (Read more from Marcus Thompson II)

+ There may be some magic in the wristband that bonds the Slash Bros together. The Spurs’ three point guards, De’Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle and Harper, have become a special group within the locker room. (Read more from Jared Weiss)

+ Whether on the court or on his ranch, Keldon Johnson gets chemistry. It’s his greatest skill. It’s why he won Sixth Man of the Year. The longest-tenured player on the Spurs roster, he has embraced a reserve role after starting the vast majority of his first four seasons in the NBA. (Read more from Jared Weiss)

+ Game 1 of the Western Conference finals changed everything. In that moment, the league tilted, more than slightly, revealing a clearer view of the NBA’s possible future. The anticipation of Wembanyama’s league domination elevated beyond speculative analysis. For most of his career, he lived in the space between rumor and reality. A phenomenon heard about but confined to conjecture. (Read more from Marcus Thompson II)