Three polls released Thursday show a range of potential outcomes in the New Jersey governor’s race. While each survey suggests Democratic nominee Mikie Sherrill holds a lead over Republican nominee Jack Ciattarelli, the gap narrows significantly, in some cases to a dead heat.
A Quinnipiac University Poll shows Sherrill ahead of Ciattarelli 51% to 43% among likely voters. The poll – taken Oct. 23-28 – has a margin of error of +/-3.8 percentage points.
An Oct. 15 Quinnipiac Poll had Sherrill at a 50%-44% advantage over Ciattarelli. The new poll shows independents are split, with Ciattarelli holding a narrow lead within the margin of error, 47% to 44%.
A Suffolk University Poll unveiled the same day shows Sherrill’s lead cut in half, 46%-42% over Ciattarelli, with seven percent of likely voters undecided. That poll was conducted from Oct. 26-29, with a margin of error of +/-4.4 percentage points.
But a survey released Thursday by Emerson College/PIX 11/The Hill shows Sherrill and Ciattarelli effectively tied among likely voters, with the Democrat at 49% and the Republican at 48%. Two percent of voters are undecided. That poll was taken Oct. 25-27, with a margin of error of +/- three percentage points.
Sherrill is a four-term U.S. representative and former Navy helicopter pilot. Ciattarelli is a former member of the state Assembly who came within about three percentage points of beating incumbent Gov. Phil Murphy in the 2021 gubernatorial race. Murphy is not able to run again due to term limits.
Support by gender
While the overall numbers are close, “the gender divide in the gubernatorial election has solidified: men break for Ciattarelli by 16 points, while women break for Sherrill by 18 points,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. “Since last month, Ciattarelli’s lead among men increased by four points, and Sherill’s lead among women grew by eight points.”
The Quinnipiac Poll finds women back Sherrill 57%-37%. Among men, 50% back Ciattarelli, while 43 percent back Sherrill.
On the issues
Asked what the most important issue is in deciding who to vote for, 25% of likely voters say taxes, 16% say ethics in government, and 14% say healthcare, according to Quinnipiac.
In the Emerson survey, 52% of voters say the economy is the top issue facing the state, while 14% say threats to democracy, and 11% housing affordability.
The Murphy/Trump factor
The final vote may reflect feelings about Murphy’s performance as his second term winds down, and with President Trump now more than 10 months back in office after his 2024 victory.
Forty-five percent of likely voters approve of the way Murphy is handling his job as governor, according to Quinnipiac, while 47% disapprove. That poll finds 40% of likely voters approve of the way President Donald Trump is handling his job, while 56% disapprove.
The Suffolk Poll finds Murphy with 39% approval and 46% disapproval. Trump also holds a 39% approval rating, while 52% of those questioned disapprove of his job performance.
Thirty-four percent approve of the job Murphy is doing as governor in the Emerson poll, while 50% disapprove; 16% are neutral. Trump holds a 45% approval rating, while 53% disapprove of his job performance.
Polls will be open for early voting until Sunday at 6 p.m. Mail-in ballots must be postmarked on or before 8 p.m. on Election Day Mail-in ballots cannot be returned to voters’ poll locations. Polls will be open 6 a.m. to 8 p.m. on Election Day.