Representative Dan Goldman trails his progressive challenger Brad Lander in polls and prediction markets in the Democratic primary for New York’s 10th Congressional District, as voters cast their ballots in the critical race on Tuesday.
The primary has become a referendum on competing visions for Democratic leadership in New York and is one of the clearest tests of the progressive movement’s strength.
Lander’s lead in polls and prediction markets reflects dissatisfaction among some voters with Goldman’s more centrist approach, while Goldman is relying on incumbency, name recognition and establishment backing. The race will help determine whether the city’s progressive wing can translate its organizing power into another high‑profile victory.
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Mayor Zohran Mamdani endorsed Lander, the former city comptroller who became a close ally on the campaign trail, so the race is also a barometer of the mayor’s political influence. It’s one of several races pitting a New York City progressive against a more moderate Democrat in the 2026 congressional primaries.
Newsweek reached out to Lander and Goldman’s campaigns for comment via email.
What the Final Polls Show in NY-10
Polls suggest Lander is in a strong position to unseat Goldman heading into Election Day.
An Emerson College poll found that 57 percent of respondents planned to vote for Lander, compared with 23 percent for Goldman. It surveyed 450 likely voters from May 16-17, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percentage points.
A Schoen Cooperman Research Poll, which surveyed 465 likely voters from May 1-4, showed a tighter race but still gave Lander an advantage. In that poll, 47 percent of respondents said they would back Lander compared to 42 percent for Goldman. It was first reported by City & State.
New York’s 10th District comprises lower Manhattan and parts of Brooklyn. It is an affluent, highly educated district that backed Mamdani in the 2025 mayoral race. It includes numerous progressive strongholds, including Park Slope and Red Hook. Parts of Manhattan, such as the East and West Village, are also more progressive and have backed Mamdani.
The district does include some more moderate areas in downtown Manhattan, though, as well as parts of the more conservative Borough Park in Brooklyn.
Prediction Markets Also Favor Brad Lander
Prediction markets heavily favor Lander, who had a 98 percent chance of victory on Kalshi and a 99 percent chance on Polymarket as of Monday morning.
Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real‑money wagers into probability estimates. Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends.
Why Dan Goldman Is Vulnerable in This Primary
The district is viewed as among the most progressive in the country, and some Democrats do not see Goldman as particularly aligned with it, as he’s not seen as particularly progressive. He has specifically drawn scrutiny from some on the left over his support for Israel, which has become a sticking point among some constituents. He also did not endorse Mamdani in the mayoral election.
Goldman was “never a great fit for this district,” Laura Tamman, a Pace University political scientist, told Newsweek.
“The most-moderate candidate in a multi-candidate field, he narrowly won the primary in 2022,” she said. “Despite representing one of the most-progressive districts in the country, he refused to support the Democratic nominee for Mayor in last year’s general election.”
Mamdani is “extremely popular” in the district and his position on the mayoral race “illuminated how out of sync he is with the voters of this district,” Tamman said.
Mamdani has described himself as a “proud Zionist and steadfast supporter of Israel” and has said there is an “undercurrent of antisemitism in the degree to which AIPAC seems to be vilified.” However, he has also been critical of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government.
In an August 2025 statement, he wrote that the “current crisis in Gaza shocks the conscience.”
“It is clear that Prime Minister Netanyahu’s personal and political interests are guiding Israel’s actions, rather than what is best for the Israeli people or for the nation of Israel. He is beholden to the extreme right, whose support he needs to remain in power, which, in turn, is helpful to defend against his corruption case,” he said.
Lander is viewed as a more liberal Zionist, previously calling on “a coalition of anti-Zionists and liberal Zionists” to support Mamdani in 2025, according to The Jerusalem Post. In addition to Mamdani, he has received support from independent Senator Bernie Sanders and Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren.
Why Mamdani Backed Brad Lander
Mamdani was an early supporter of Lander, who ran against him in the Democratic mayoral primary.
“He has been a trusted ally and partner of mine, and I’m proud to support him as I know he’ll continue delivering for those who need government to show up for them the most,” Mamdani told The New York Times in December.
The pair became allies during the mayoral campaign trail last year, with both occupying the more progressive lane in the race. Lander ultimately encouraged his supporters to rank Mamdani second in the primary election, since the city uses ranked-choice voting in its mayoral elections.
Lander and Mamdani appeared together on The Late Show With Stephen Colbert in June 2025, with the former describing their relationship as “remarkable.”
“There is something quite remarkable about a Jewish New Yorker and a Muslim New Yorker coming together to say, ‘Here’s how we protect all New Yorkers,'” Lander said.
He placed third in the primary, behind Andrew Cuomo, while Mamdani won the primary and general election. Mamdani’s victory has been a massive win for the political left, as he is a member of the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) and ran on progressive policies, including making buses fare-free and establishing city-run grocery stores.
When Results Will Be Reported
Polls in New York City are open from 6 a.m. to 9 p.m. ET, according to the New York City Board of Elections, which also published a map showing wait times at polling places. Results could begin to be reported shortly after polls close.
Goldman Responds to NYC Coffee Shop’s Criticism Over Israel Stance
In the final days of the campaign, a local coffee shop named Poetica drew a response from Goldman after making a post banning him from returning over his stance on Israel.
“Hey Congressman Dan Goldman, we see that you stopped by our shop today for a coffee,” the shop said in the post. “Do you see how it doesn’t taste like genocide juice? Or are you still having a hard time telling the difference? See, here at Poetica, we don’t serve racists, fascists, homophobes, genocide enablers, or anyone in between,” the coffee shop wrote.
Goldman responded on Monday in a comment on the Facebook post.
“I am sorry to see this post,” he wrote. “The barista could not have been nicer to my 7-year-old daughter and me—allowing her to use the bathroom even though we had not purchased anything. I made sure to buy a coffee in return for her kindness. I hope you at least make sure she gets the tip that she deserved.”
Lander also said he is “glad” the post was taken down, previously telling Newsweek, “There are plenty of ways to lobby elected officials and express outrage at the votes they’ve taken without turning coffee shops into places people don’t feel welcome.”
What Happens Next
Regardless of whether Goldman or Lander wins the primary, the seat is expected to remain safely Democratic in November, according to forecasters like the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. The district is among the most Democratic in the country, backing former Vice President Kamala Harris by 60 points in 2024.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jason Lemon and Sam Wilson.
Update, 06/23/26 12:10 p.m. ET: this article was updated with Laura Tamman, a Pace University political scientist.