New York voters head to the polls Tuesday for primary elections, including a closely watched contest for the Manhattan-based congressional seat being vacated by longtime Democratic Representative Jerry Nadler in a heavily Democratic district.
The district, which the Cook Political Report rates as “Solid Democrat,” has drawn a crowded field of candidates, including Assemblymembers Micah Lasher and Alex Bores, a former Palantir employee, as well as Jack Schlossberg, the grandson of former President John F. Kennedy. Polling has shown that undecided voters making up the largest share of the electorate.
Whoever wins the primary will be the overwhelming favorite in November’s general election. New York’s 12th Congressional District is viewed as among the most Democratic-friendly districts in the country, having backed former Vice President Kamala Harris by nearly 64 points over President Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential race.
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Around 172,700 New Yorkers cast ballots during early voting, more than 67,000 of them in Manhattan, according to the City’s Board of Elections. Mayor Zohran Mamdani, who now resides at Gracie Mansion in the district, confirmed he voted but did not publicly endorse a candidate in the race, although he did for neighboring districts.
Who Is Running in New York’s 12th District?
The city’s Board of Elections lists the following candidates for the open seat.
Assemblyman Alex BoresAttorney George ConwaySoftware engineer Chris DiepAttorney Laura DunnAssemblyman Micah LasherHealth researcher Nina SchwalbeAttorney Patrick TimminsJack Schlossberg
What Polls Show Ahead of Election Day
Recent polls show that Schlossberg has lost ground after leading earlier in the year, while Bores and Lasher have emerged near the top of several surveys. The race has been expensive, with about $26 million in ad spending, according to AdImpact.
An Emerson College Polling/PIX 11 survey of 425 likely Democratic primary voters conducted May 16-17 found that nearly one-third of voters are undecided in the race.
Lasher is leading with 22 percent support, followed by Bores at 20 percent. Schlossberg garnered 11 percent of the vote, with Conway, a former conservative lawyer who has become a vocal Trump critic, at 10 percent. After that, Schwalbe had 3 percent backing.
“Candidate preference varies by gender in the 12th district: Men break for Bores over Lasher, 27 percent to 19 percent, while women break for Lasher over Bores, 24 percent to 15 percent, followed by Schlossberg at 13 percent,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.
The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.8 percentage points.
A Tavern Research poll of 910 likely voters, sponsored by the Jobs and Democracy PAC, found Bores at 20 percent to Schlossberg’s 17 percent, Lasher at 16 and Conway at 9. About 28 percent of participants were undecided.
The poll was conducted May 11-15 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.
A GQR poll sponsored by Conway of 500 likely voters conducted May 12-14 found Bores with 26 percent of the vote, Lasher with 23 percent, Conway with 17 and Schlossberg with 14. Eighteen percent of participants were undecided. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.38 percentage points.
An April poll of 300 likely Democratic primary voters conducted by Honan Strategy Group found Lasher with an 8-point lead, 28 percent to Schlossberg’s 20 percent and Bores’ 19 percent. The poll was conducted April 16-22 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 5.64 percentage points.
A March Hart Research poll sponsored by Bores gave Schlossberg a slight lead as 22 percent of respondents said they would vote for him in the primary. Bores placed second with 19 percent, while Lasher received 14 percent and Conway 10 percent. Four percent of respondents said they would vote for Schwalbe. The poll surveyed 404 likely voters March 9-13.
A March GQR poll, sponsored by Conway, gave Schlossberg a lead at 25 percent, with 16 percent for Conway and 11 percent each for Bores and Lasher. Thirty-three percent were undecided. It surveyed 500 likely voters February 25-March 2 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.38 percentage points.
A Public Policy Polling survey of 608 likely voters, February 26-27, showed Bores leading at 20 percent, followed by Lasher at 19 percent and Schlossberg at 18. Conway received 13 percent support, while 30 percent were undecided.
What Prediction Markets Show?
Prediction market Kalshi favored Lasher as of Tuesday morning, giving him a 75 percent chance of winning the primary, compared with 26 percent for Bores and 1 percent for Schlossberg.
Polymarket showed a similar outlook, showing Lasher with a 74 percent chance of victory, followed by Bores at 27 percent and Schlossberg at less than 1 percent.
Where Is NY District 12?
New York’s District 12 is centered in Manhattan and includes some of the wealthiest and most densely populated neighborhoods in New York City. The district covers much of Manhattan’s east and west sides below Harlem, including areas such as the Upper East Side, Upper West Side, Midtown Manhattan, Gramercy, Murray Hill, Chelsea, Hell’s Kitchen, Greenwich Village, SoHo and parts of the Lower East Side.
The district was reshaped during the state’s 2022 redistricting process, with a new map adopted in 2024. The district also underwent boundary changes following the 2010 Census, with new lines taking effect in 2013; it previously included portions of Brooklyn and Queens.
A Republican has not won the district under its current boundaries, and the last Republican elected to represent New York’s 12th Congressional District was Francis Edwin Dorn, whose fourth term ended in 1960.