Primary nights often answer one set of questions and create a whole list of new ones to ponder ahead of the November general election.

That rings especially true in the race to replace Congresswoman and Trump ally Elise Stefanik in New York’s 21st Congressional District, where Republican and Sticker Mule CEO Anthony Constantino will face off against Democratic dairy farmer Blake Gendebien.

Whether President Donald Trump’s endorsement of Constantino would propel him to victory over the establishment-backed Assemblyman Robert Smullen in an exceptionally nasty primary seems to have been answered with a resounding yes, but Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist University Institute for Public Opinion, said broader nationwide trends were at play as well.

“It’s always a little bit of everything that makes up these things, but Trump was a major factor last night,” he said. “That’s important in launching Constantino’s effort and providing him some credentials with the MAGA crowd, but right now, when you run against established politicians, whether Democrat or Republican, you do well.”

Constantino thanked Trump extensively on primary night but didn’t shy away from acknowledging the appeal of his candidacy on its own.

“It’s easy to sell a product that people want. I think people tend to like me. It was easy for the president to endorse me and sell me, but he inspired me to be here,” he said Tuesday night, adding, “We’re going to unify the party, it’s going to happen, and I’m excited to do it.”

Unity is one of the unanswered questions. Smullen is already on the Conservative Party line, and as of Wednesday afternoon, he has not committed to leaving the race.

“I am on the Conservative ballot. We will be assessing what that means and what the path forward is,” he said, indicating that a decision can be expected in the coming days.

Smullen also put up a post on social media on Wednesday saying that he will “never stop fighting for the people, principles, and communities that make this region so special,” raising additional questions but not addressing concrete plans.

Miringoff said the race remains one for Republicans to lose.

“The overall picture is uphill for Republicans because they usually lose seats in the midterm elections, but in this district, the favorite is the Republican,” he said.

Congresswoman Elise Stefanik — who has now endorsed Constantino — won the deep-red district by 24 points in 2024. Amid some discontent with the president’s policies in the district, including tariffs affecting communities along the Canadian border, and the fact that Democrats are expected to have a good midterm year, there is faint hope for Democrats if 2026 shapes up to be a “wave” year, which is far from a guarantee.

“If, in fact, there is a way for Democrats to do well in the 21st, it’s probably an indication they are doing well elsewhere as well,” he said.

Miringoff told Spectrum News 1 that he sees it as unlikely that a Democratic victory will come from a split vote on the right, as was the case the last time Democrats took over the seat in a 2009 special election. That year, Republican nominee Dede Scozzafava suspended her campaign at the last minute and endorsed Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman amid criticism from Tea Party activists for being too moderate. Democrat Bill Owens ultimately won the seat, with Scozzafava receiving 5% of the write-in vote, and held it until 2015.

“My guess is that will work itself out, and it will end up being Republican versus Democrat,” he said.

Now firmly in the driver’s seat, Gendebien said Tuesday night that he intends to ride voter discontent with Republican leadership to Washington.

“It’s really important to me that we understand that lowering costs is a top priority, saving our rural health care and making sure that we end the dysfunction and the partisan bickering in D.C. that gets nothing done for us,” he said.

Gov. Kathy Hochul, who has made it her mission to strengthen the Democratic delegation in New York since a bruising 2022 election night, weighed in Wednesday, telling reporters:

“There are disaffected Republicans who have had it with the MAGA movement being hurt even in the North Country, where I think we have a chance of winning that seat.”

If Smullen exits the race, Miringoff said a Democratic victory outright would likely come from a substantial blue wave. That said, he stressed that because the district is so red, Democrats don’t necessarily need to run away with it to make an impression.

“Whether the Democrats can chip away at that margin, which was so wide — around 24 points — let’s say single digits, then that’s a story about what’s going on not only in the 21st, but what’s going on elsewhere,” he said.