Traders betting on Polymarket, the decentralized prediction platform, could see twelvefold payouts if Andrew Cuomo wins the 2025 New York City mayoral election.
The race has drawn global attention, not only for its political stakes but for its endorsements. Both President Donald Trump and Elon Musk have voiced support for Cuomo while labeling frontrunner Zohran Mamdani a “communist.”
Data from Polymarket shows that the market titled “New York City Mayoral Election” has amassed nearly $397 million in total trading volume, making it one of the platform’s most active political markets of 2025. Of that, more than $123 million has been wagered on Mamdani’s win. Notably, all trades on Polymarket are settled in cryptocurrency, primarily stablecoins.
Built on Polygon, an Ethereum Layer-2 network, Polymarket allows users to trade binary outcome contracts, effectively placing bets on real-world events.
As of Nov. 4, contracts tied to Cuomo’s victory were trading around $0.08, meaning a “Yes” share that settles at $1 could yield roughly 12 times returns if he wins. By comparison, Mamdani’s shares were priced near $0.92, implying an overwhelming market consensus that the Democratic Socialist lawmaker from Queens will take City Hall.
Related: 99% of traders nailed Zohran Mamdani’s stunning New York primary win
At those levels, Cuomo’s implied odds hover around 8%, reflecting skepticism among traders but also creating one of the most asymmetric risk–reward setups in current prediction markets.
NEW YORK, NY – OCTOBER 16: (L-R) Mayoral candidates, Independent nominee former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa and Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani participate in a mayoral debate at Rockefeller Center on October 16, 2025 in New York City. The candidates for New York City mayor are facing off in their first debate ahead of the November 4 election. (Photo by Angelina Katsanis-Pool/Getty Images)
Polymarket’s transparent on-chain data shows a spike in activity for the Cuomo side.
One user recently placed a $25,000 bet backing Cuomo, their first recorded trade on the platform. If correct, the position would return nearly $459,000.
Data from Polysights indicates at least 51 active bets on Cuomo’s victory, with roughly a quarter of them placed in the past three hours. Several “whales” — high-volume traders with elevated Radar Scores — have entered with individual positions of $30,000–$40,000.
Polymarket’s contracts settle only after official certification or aligned calls from major U.S. networks.
Polymarket emerged as a benchmark for political forecasting during the 2024 United States presidential election.
The platform’s markets attracted over $3.1 billion in trading volume, making it one of the most actively traded events in decentralized prediction history.
Traders speculated primarily on whether Donald Trump or Joe Biden would win, with Trump’s implied probability hovering between 58% and 61% in the final week before the vote, a significantly higher figure than that shown by traditional polling models.
Voters in New York City are casting their ballots in a tightly contested mayoral election featuring Mamdani, independent Cuomo, and Republican Curtis Sliwa. Polls have shown Mamdani maintaining a clear lead over his rivals.
Former governor Andrew Cuomo, running as an independent, has sought to appeal to centrist and conservative Democrats, focusing his campaign on public safety, experience and economic recovery. Cuomo received Trump’s endorsement in the final days before the vote. Cuomo’s campaign has also been buoyed by outgoing Mayor Eric Adams’ endorsement following Adams’ withdrawal.
The winner of the election will be sworn in on Jan. 1, 2026.
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This story was originally reported by TheStreet on Nov 4, 2025, where it first appeared in the MARKETS section. Add TheStreet as a Preferred Source by clicking here.