Hochul and Blakeman campaign 100 days until election

In 99 days, voters will be heading to the polls in New York to decide who will be governor for the next four years.

While both Gov. Kathy Hochul and Republican Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman are projecting confidence in their campaigns, the incumbent Democratic governor is leading her Republican challenger both in the polls and in fundraising.

But experts say the November election is going to have a lot to do with a third figure: President Donald Trump.

“Blakeman, you know, can point to her incumbency, and she can point to Donald Trump’s incumbency, and so we’re going to hear a lot about that,” Lee Miringoff, the director of the Marist University Poll, said.

“We have a grumpy electorate where people are not satisfied with things about the economy and housing and lots of other issues,” he added.

New York’s major party chairs say the political winds are blowing their way.

“We have the high ground with respect to fiscally responsible budgets. We have the high ground with respect to immigration. We have the high ground with respect to energy,” Ed Cox, the chair of the state Republican Party, said.

“I think the Democratic Party’s mission is really very clear. It always has been, is now, and should always be to ensure that the American dream works for every citizen in this country,” Jay Jacobs, the state Democratic Party chairman, said in a separate interview.

Hochul leads Blakeman in the polls.

Her favorability and approval ratings have ticked up in recent months, and in a head-to-head race, Hochul leads Blakeman by 20 points.

“Right now, she’s getting independents, and she’s clearly getting the Democratic base, now are there certain things going on in New York where she has not succeeded, where she’s coming up short. If you look at the legislative agenda, clearly Blakeman can point to those things,” Miringoff said.

Hochul made affordability her mission this year: childcare subsidies, promises to cut car insurance rates, and rolling back strict green energy deadlines she said would be too costly.

Blakeman criticizes her for steep increases in state spending and criminal justice policy.

A spotlight remains on Trump, who endorsed Blakeman.

“He loves New York. He will not be able to resist coming here. He’ll come here and will be very helpful to us in the process,” Cox said of the president, hinting that he may come to the Empire State to campaign for his candidate of choice before Nov. 3.

But New York Democrats also have an enrollment advantage.

“Gas prices are up, food prices are soaring. Everything that Donald Trump promised in the last election that enticed some people to vote for him has proven to be wrong,” Jacobs said.

Federal healthcare funding cuts and immigration policy drove the conversation in the Albany statehouse this year.

Two local law enforcement offices in Blakeman’s Nassau hold what’s known as 287g agreements to cooperate with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement.

They could run afoul of state law if they are still live in August.

“Huge mistake,” Cox said.

“You’ve got to cooperate with ICE, whether they have an agreement or not,” he added.

Democrats may also be facing an identity crisis.

“In New York state, the Democratic Party in this county. Yes, we do have a wing that is far more progressive. You do have the [Democratic Socialists of America] folks, and I disagree with many of the things that they want to do,” Jacobs said. “I don’t have any argument as to where their heart is, what they want to see for people.”

After the Democratic Socialists of America knocked out two incumbents in Congress and picked up an open seat in the primaries, plus making double-digit statehouse gains.

Hochul could also face pressure regarding her relationship with Mayor Zohran Mamdani.

Jacobs says that it’s up to the “establishment” Democratic Party “to come up with, you know, I think, better policies, bolder policies, something more exciting to appeal to younger people who are struggling and they’re disenchanted.”

“Not to destroy or end capitalism as socialism wants to do, but to replace it with a fair capitalism, a progressive capitalism that works for everybody,” he continued.

Hochul also has a fundraising advantage over Blakeman with over $21 million in total cash on hand.

She’s also held high dollar fundraisers in conjunction with the state Democratic Party, including one at the June 16 FIFA World Cup Match — raking in in-kind donations to the tune of $100,415 from head of the NYNJ Host Committee, Alex Lasry, and $288,969 from Airbnb, according to the campaign and Board of Elections filings.

Blakeman has raised over $6 million and opted to take public campaign matching dollars after he was kicked out of the system and then let back in.