With the European leagues on pause for the offseason and the World Cup bringing renewed attention to soccer in North America, Major League Soccer has an opportunity to claim the spotlight. The All-Star skills challenge earlier in the week was a success, as it pitted some of MLS’ and Liga MX’s brightest against each other and produced several viral clips on social media.

The post All-Star slate will kick back off at 7:30 p.m. ET tonight with a clash between New York City FC and Toronto FC, perhaps fittingly pitting the largest cities of the representative countries against each other. With the New York Yankees on the road against the Chicago Cubs, the game will take place at Yankee Stadium.

The Pigeons are -160 favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook, and the Reds are +380. There are +295 odds that the teams will draw.

Below, I’ll break down this battle of the metros and provide my favorite bet.

New York City FC vs. Toronto FC Best Bet:

NYCFC or Tie and U2.5 (+105): Both of these teams have pretty strong defenses, as each ranks near the top of the league in expected goals per match and has won ground and aerial duels at high rates. New York City FC should have the advantage, as it’s been more clinical and has the better goalkeeper, but Toronto won’t make it easy.

New York City FC vs. Toronto FC prediction, pick

The World Cup break hardly could’ve come at a better time for both teams, as NYCFC ended the first half of the season with a draw and a loss, as well as an elimination from the U.S. Open Cup at the hands of the Columbus Crew, and Toronto FC hadn’t picked up a win in the league since April. However, after play resumed, the Pigeons picked up back-to-back wins, exacting revenge on the Crew and beating Robert Lewandowski’s Chicago Fire, while the Reds’ disappointing form continued with a draw against the New England Revolution and a loss to D.C. United. Roughly halfway through the regular season, NYCFC is in decent position to make the playoffs, sitting fifth in the tightly-packed Eastern Conference standings on 25 points, while Toronto FC is in 12th on 16 points, six points behind a Wild Card position. The Pigeons will also have the Leagues Cup to contend with over the next few weeks, a competition for which the Reds did not qualify.

On paper, New York City FC has more big names. Nicolás Fernández has scored in the Argentinian top flight and assisted in La Liga before, so it’s hardly a surprise that he’s broken out at the MLS level, leading the team and tying for third in the division with 12 goals. Additionally, the Pigeons also have fellow young Argentine Augustin Ojeda and former RB Salzburg man Hannes Wolf, each of whom has five goals, and even at the age of 39, former Atalanta starter Maximiliano Moralez can still pass. Overall, NYCFC hasn’t created the best chances, ranking 12th-to-last in expected goals per match, but it’s finished clinically, scoring on 15.79% of their shots and ranking fifth in goals minus expected goals per match. It’s also been an above-average passing team, especially on crosses. The Pigeons have paired their attack with an average defense, as they’ve given up the 14th-fewest expected goals on the 11th-most shots on target per match. NYCFC has been very active on that end of the ball, ranking third in tackles per 90 minutes and winning ground duels at the highest rate, though it’s been bad at playing the offsides trap and has recorded among the fewest interceptions. The Pigeons’ precision has allowed them not to press, and though they’ve forced the fourth-fewest high turnovers leading to a shot, they’ve played pretty cleanly, fouling at a below-average rate. Goalkeeper Matt Freese is an asset, as he ranks a solid eighth in save percentage and, as the USMNT’s starting goalie at the World Cup, arguably has more raw talent than any other shot-stopper in the division.

Toronto actually sent more players to the World Cup than NYCFC did, and its attack is more egalitarian, with Dániel Sallói, Josh Sargent, Emilio Aristizábal, Richie Laryea, Kobe Franklin, and Derrick Etienne all netting multiple times. That’s a decent collection of talent; Sargent has been a star in England’s second division, and Aristizábal is a 20-year-old on loan from Atlético Nacional, historically the most successful club in Colombia. For all of their talent, though, the Reds have only managed the third-fewest expected goals per match, as well as the sixth-fewest shots on target and among the lowest pass completion rates, both overall and in the final third. Thankfully, Toronto has made up for that somewhat with its defense, as it has allowed the 10th-fewest expected goals per match on the second-lowest shot-in-box percentage, and it’s been active in the passing lanes, ranking fourth in interceptions per match. The Reds have been slightly better at forcing high turnovers ending in a shot, but still not great, and they’ve played slightly less cleanly than the Pigeons. Luka Gavran also hasn’t been as effective as Freese in between the sticks, ranking sixth-to-last in both save percentage and goals prevented.

New York City loves to control the pace of the game, and Toronto is willing to sit back and play on the counter, so I’d expect the Pigeons to have the bulk of the opportunities. That doesn’t mean they’ll be easy chances, though; because the Reds are reluctant to press, NYCFC can’t break their back line with through balls, and their persistence in passing lanes and high aerial duel win rates should pose a challenge against the Pigeons’ crosses. I’d still expect the hosts to win in the end because they’ve been clinical finishers and because Freese has the goalkeeping advantage over Gavran, but I expect it to be more a grind than a battering.

Best Bet: NYCFC or Tie and U2.5 (+105)