Ten years after she came into the House of Representatives as the youngest woman ever elected to Congress up to that time, U.S. Rep. Elise Stefanik is seeking to transition from Washington to Albany. A source familiar with her plans told Spectrum News Thursday night that the 41-year-old Republican will announce Friday she’s running for governor of New York in 2026.
The representative of New York’s sprawling 21st Congressional District in the North Country is taking on the high task of unseating Gov. Kathy Hochul and ending 20 years of Democratic dominance in the Empire State’s executive mansion that has seen two resignations due to scandal.
Stefanik’s move puts an end to months of speculation that she would seek the job, the likeliness of which helped deter other high-profile Republicans — namely her House colleague Rep. Mike Lawler — from jumping into the ring.
Her name has been the top one floated since President Doanld Trump pulled her nomination for ambassador to the United Nations in March, aiming to keep her in Congress due to the slim Republican majority in the chamber. Siena University has polled her prospects in a hypothetical matchup against Hochul since early summer. In those polls, she also was the clear favorite among Republican voters to lead the party’s ticket.
Elected to Congress in 2014 at the age of 30, Stefanik came to Washington with Republican establishment credentials: She was a Harvard graduate, she worked in the George W. Bush White House and on Mitt Romney’s presidential campaign and was a protégé of former House Speaker Paul Ryan. At that time, she repeatedly ranked among the most bipartisan lawmakers on Capitol Hill, according to the Lugar Center, and co-chaired the moderate Tuesday Group.
A late supporter of Trump when he was first elected in 2016, Stefanik soon embraced the 45th president as his tenure progressed, with Trump’s first impeachment in 2019 thrusting her into the national spotlight. She was one of Trump’s most vocal and effective defenders during those televised hearings and quickly earned praise and respect from GOP elders.
“A new Republican Star is born. Great going @EliseStefanik!” Trump wrote on Twitter at the time.
She was able to keep that momentum from those 2019 hearings even after Trump left office. She took over as chair of the House GOP conference and became the third-highest ranking Republican in the chamber after the party ousted former Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney from that job in 2021. Her support for the president never waned during the Biden years, and she endorsed Trump’s comeback presidency before he even announced he was running.
It was during Biden’s term that Stefanik began to ramp up attacks on Kathy Hochul, who became governor in 2021 when Andrew Cuomo resigned when facing sexual harassment allegations and potential impeachment. She has regularly criticized the Democratic agenda on bail laws, taxes, environmental measures and immigration policies. In what may be a precursor of what’s to come, Stefanik and Hochul clashed in a high-profile hearing on Capitol Hill back in June on sanctuary city policies.
Stefanik has proven to be a considerable fundraiser and campaigner. She campaigned fiercely for her House colleague at the time — Lee Zeldin — when he was the Republican nominee taking on Hochul in 2022.
If she becomes the nominee, Stefanik will aim to build on the support and momentum spurred by Zeldin, who came within 6 points of unseating Hochul in the closest gubernatorial race the state had seen in nearly 30 years.
The 2024 elections in New York showed Zeldin’s strength two years earlier may not be a one-off. Donald Trump only lost New York in the presidential race by 11.6 points, becoming the first Republican nominee since George W. Bush in 2004 to garner more than 40% of the vote in the blue state.
Trump also improved his past performances in New York City and continued a years-long Republican takeover of Long Island, both of which are the crucial paths for a Republican to win a statewide office.
Along with Hochul — whom Stefanik regularly refers to as “the worst governor in America” — Stefanik also has a new target in New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani. The politics from City Hall there could be a significant factor in next year’s elections.
Hochul is running for a second full term. She previously served as lieutenant governor for six years and briefly served in Congress before then. The governor will face at least one primary challenger – the sitting lieutenant governor, Antonio Delgado – in June.