Heavy downpours, strong storms possible in Vermont, New York Thursday afternoon

The strongest storms could produce damaging wind gusts, small hail, even a brief tornado

Ben FrechetteSOUTH BURLINGTON, Vt. —

The NBC5 First Warning Weather team is tracking a round of showers and thunderstorms that is expected to move across Vermont and Northern New York Thursday afternoon and evening. A few of those storms could turn strong to severe.

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Weather headlines for Thursday’s storm threat.

Image no longer availableStorms will be most widespread between 3 and 8 P.M.

Showers could begin developing by late morning in a few spots, but the best chance for thunderstorms will come during the afternoon and evening as warmer, more humid air moves in ahead of a cold front.

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Thunderstorm risk areas for Thursday.

Image no longer availableAreas of highest risk for severe weather

The Storm Prediction Center has placed Essex County, New York, along with Addison and Rutland counties in Vermont, under a Level 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms. The rest of much of the region remains under a lower-end severe risk.

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Possible storm hazards through Thursday afternoon and evening.

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The main concerns with stronger storms will be damaging wind gusts, small hail and heavy rain. Enough spin exists in the atmosphere where a weak tornado is possible, but the overall risk is very low.

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Rainfall potential Thursday afternoon and evening.

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Southern Vermont has the greatest concern for repeated downpours, which could lead to localized flash flooding if storms track over the same areas. Localized rainfall amounts over 2″ are possible.

Not everyone will see severe weather, but it will be a good day to keep an eye on the radar and have a way to receive weather alerts, especially if you have outdoor plans later in the day.

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Our latest extended forecast.

Image no longer availableLooking to the weekend

A few showers may linger into early Friday before drier air takes over. From there, the forecast improves considerably: Saturday looks sunny, seasonable and less humid, with similarly pleasant weather expected for much of Sunday.

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