NEW YORK CITY – With New York City expected to see the first real glimpse of winter this week, FOX 5 NY’s Nick Gregory is sharing his 2025-2026 outlook for the season, including the potential for a nor’easter and his snow total predictions.
JUMP TO: NOR’EASTER POTENTIAL l SNOW TOTAL PREDICTIONS l OTHER WINTER OUTLOOKS
First day of winter 2025
Timeline:
Winter officially begins in the Northern Hemisphere on Dec. 21 with the winter solstice – the day with the least amount of possible daylight and the longest night.
La Niña winter weather forecast
Big picture view:
La Niña occurs when cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean influence global weather patterns.Â
The phenomenon typically brings drier and warmer conditions to the southern U.S., while regions such as the Great Lakes and parts of the Northeast experience cooler and wetter weather.
Gregory says the circled blue area below is an indication that sea surface temperatures at the equatorial latitudes are below average – “it’s looking to be a weak La Niña,” he said.
La Niña winters can produce a variety of things:
A strong La Niña back in 2022-2023 gave New York City a record-low 2.3 inches of snow.But a weak to moderate La Niña back in 2017-2018 brought over 40.9 inches of snow to New York City.
Here’s what to expect with the potential weak La Niña that we’re likely to see this winter:
Milder than average with below average snowfall.Last winter, New York City received only 12.9 inches of snow.The average New York City snowfall is 25 to 30 inches of snow. What is the polar vortex?
Gregory says the other thing to watch for is the polar vortex, which is the strong area of low pressure located near the North Pole. It’s a permanent feature of the Earth’s atmosphere.
“If it gets fractured or disrupted, then you get these little waves that can dip down and bring the Arctic air along the eastern seaboard, which is something that we would be on the lookout for,” Gregory said.
Local perspective:
Gregory predicts the potential for “maybe one or two or three nor’easters” during the season.
“So, with that northern jet stream pattern, we’ll see these storms come down from Canada, move across the northern plain states and zip off to the north,” Gregory said. “What can happen, though, is some of these storms can redevelop on the coast. That’s how we get nor’easters. So, the potential would be there for maybe one or two or three nor’easters to really threaten with some snow across the area.”
By the numbers:
Gregory predicts New York City could receive around 15–20″ of snow. Meanwhile, parts of New Jersey and the lower Hudson Valley could see slightly more snowfall, with totals ranging between 20 and 25 inches, with more snowfall further north.Â
“Up from the Catskills region and in upstate New York and northern New England, they should do very, very well with snowfall this season,” Gregory said.
When will the first flakes fall?
Historically, the first measurable snow (accumulation of one inch or more) tends to fall in the New York City area around Dec. 13. The earliest measurable snowfall was on October 29, 2011, when 2.9 inches fell days before Halloween.
NOAA
NOAA uses a mix of long-range climate computer models and atmospheric trends, such as the arrival of La Niña, to base its long-range outlooks.
With that, NOAA anticipates a bone-chilling winter for the northern tier and Upper Midwest, meaning the winter could be even more frigid than usual. Â
“This set of conditions does slightly elevate the potential for colder temperatures in the central and eastern U.S., so also supports favored below-normal temperatures in the Upper Midwest,” NOAA forecasters said.
The Farmers’ Almanac
The Farmers’ Almanac, created in 1818, says the winter season calls for “dramatic swings and widespread winter weather.”
The Farmers’ Almanac 2025-26 winter outlook. (FOX Weather)
It’s expected that the northern Plains to New England will experience the coldest temperatures. Residents on the East Coast should also expect significant rain mixed with snow.
The Old Farmer’s Almanac
Unlike NOAA and The Farmers’ Almanac, the Old Farmer’s Almanac, established in 1792, says it will be a calmer, gentler winter.Â
Temperatures are expected to be slightly milder across the country with extended dry stretches. But the Almanac says some regions should “brace for a sharper chill.”
Old Farmer’s Almanac 2025-26 winter outlook. (Old Farmer’s Almanac)
“Don’t lose track of your snow shovels and umbrellas,” says Editor Carol Connare. “Most areas will experience near-normal to slightly milder temperatures, but from the Appalachians south through the Southeast and Florida, and westward across the Ohio Valley, we’re predicting a colder-than-normal winter.”