How the nor’easter could impact New England, mid-Atlantic, New York
A potential nor’easter could form off the northeast coast late this week, which could not only disrupt travel, but bring a threat of high surf, wind, rain and coastal erosion to the region.
What the forecast looks like
It is still far out, but we are seeing an interesting pattern setup this week across the eastern U.S. An area of high pressure will set up near the Great Lakes as an area of low pressure moves from south to north along the East Coast. As the low gets closer to the high, winds will begin to strengthen between the two.
While it’s too early to say exactly how strong the winds will be, there will most likely be impacts felt across the Northeast.
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We will continue to learn more, but the latest forecast calls for winds to start picking up late Tuesday and unsettled weather to peak late week.
The forecast models are picking up on the low, but their forecasts have been changing frequently with each new model run. The placement of the coastal low makes a huge difference in what the impacts will be.
The GFS model brings the low closer to shore sooner. This would mean higher winds, more rain and more coastal erosion for the Northeast. You can see the GFS model below.
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Meanwhile, the European model doesn’t bring the low as close, but it forecasts the low to be stronger and stick around longer. On Sunday the Euro model was still forecasting the low to be farther away from the shore. You can see the European model below.
The models will continue to change as we get closer, and we will have a clearer picture of what will happen in the coming days. Make sure to check back often as the forecast becomes more clear.
Regardless, we could see as much as several inches of rain across the region, so there could be disruptions to travel as well as flash flooding concerns if heavy rain sets up along the coast.
We also could see some gusty winds and larger waves across the Northeast from this storm. Gusty winds could cause power outages and travel delays along the coast and potentially inland, depending on how strong this low gets.
The strong onshore winds will cause coastal flooding, possibly beginning late Tuesday, but really increasing by late Wednesday for the lower Chesapeake Bay region, including Norfolk. Widespread to extensive flooding is possible along the Bay.
Forecast water levels where flooding is possible over the next few days.
(data: NOAA)
What is a nor’easter?
I know you are thinking that it is too early to have a nor’easter, but the criteria for a nor’easter actually gets met more often than you would think.
A nor’easter just means that the winds come to an area from the northeast. For the Northeast, that usually means an area of low pressure is just off the coast, which brings the winds in this direction.
(More: What is a nor’easter?)
Most people usually think of snow and ice with Nor’easters and that is because nor’easters do tend to occur more in the late fall and winter.
The most notable nor’easters tend to bring heavy snow due to the fact that these lows move up along ocean currents called the Gulf Stream, tapping into the moisture. This warm, moist air then clashes with the cold air over the Northeast to create heavy snowfall. Fortunately, this one is occurring way earlier, so it is all rain this time.