Slow-moving nor’easter bringing strong winds, downpours this weekend
A nor’easter could form off the East Coast late this week, which could not only disrupt travel across the Northeast, but bring a threat of high surf, wind, rain and coastal erosion to the region.
What the forecast looks like
An area of high pressure will set up near the Great Lakes as an area of low pressure moves from south to north along the East Coast.
As the low gets closer to the high, winds will begin to strengthen between the two.
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Coastal flood alerts are already in place across the mid-Atlantic, where winds will help bring 1–3 feet of inundation above normal levels. However, uncertainty remains regarding where the low will end up by the end of the week.
Forecast models are picking up on the low, but the two models show that the timing and duration of the storm could differ.
The European model brings the low close to the coast as a strong storm, but it moves slower. It could even meander around the East Coast until it fizzles. Under this scenario, there would be more time for strong winds to cause significant power outages, heavy rain-induced flooding, and coastal erosion. You can see the European model below.
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Meanwhile, the GFS model has the low moving slightly faster, approaching New England by Saturday afternoon. A faster storm could mean winds, rain and coastal erosion would be less severe and lessen disruptions to travel and weekend plans. However, this model calls for a stronger storm by the end of the weekend as it moves away from the Northeast, meaning some coastal areas could experience longer-lasting impacts. You can see the GFS model below.
The models will continue to change as we get closer, so make sure to check back often as the forecast becomes clearer.
Regardless, we could see as much as several inches of rain across the region, so there could be disruptions to travel as well as flash flooding concerns if heavy rain sets up along the coast.
We’ll likely see some gusty winds and larger waves across the Northeast from this storm. Gusty winds up to 45 mph could cause power outages and travel delays along the coast and potentially inland, depending on how strong this low gets.
Strong onshore winds will cause coastal flooding. This threat will increase by late Wednesday for the lower Chesapeake Bay region, including Norfolk. Widespread to extensive flooding is possible along the Bay.
Coastal flooding forecast through Friday
(Data: NOAA)
What is a nor’easter?
You might think it is too early for a nor’easter, but the criteria for a nor’easter are met more often than you would think.
A nor’easter simply means that the winds blow into an area from the northeast. For the Northeast, that usually means an area of low pressure is just off the coast, which brings the winds in this direction.
(More: What is a nor’easter?)
Most people usually think of snow and ice with Nor’easters and that is because nor’easters do tend to occur more in the late fall and winter.
The most notable nor’easters tend to bring heavy snow because these lows move up along the Gulf Stream, tapping into the warm ocean. This warm, moist air then clashes with the cold air over the Northeast to create heavy snowfall. Fortunately, this one is occurring way earlier, so it is all rain this time.