Two major polls released Wednesday offered sharply different pictures of the race for New York governor, but a closer look at the numbers shows more agreement than a quick glance at the headlines might suggest.

A Siena University poll found Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul leading Republican Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman by nine points, 50% to 41%. That is little changed from Siena’s August poll, when Hochul led 49% to 39%.

“This is going to come down to which side does a better job of revving up their voters,” Siena pollster Steve Greenberg said.

The result puts Hochul’s lead in single digits less than six weeks before Election Day and comes four years after she eked out a closer-than-expected victory over Republican Lee Zeldin. At roughly the same point in the 2022 campaign, Siena had Hochul leading Zeldin by 17 points before she ultimately won by about six.

But another poll released just hours later painted a very different picture, clearly a much better one for Hochul at first glance. 

A Quinnipiac University poll found Hochul leading Blakeman by 19 points, 58% to 39% — a margin more than twice as large as Siena’s. It’s important to keep in mind that the methodology and timing behind the polls differs, though there are important takeaways from looking at them side by side.

“At this moment she certainly is at an advantage and it is a very different political climate than 2022,” Quinnipiac University Poll Assistant Director Mary Snow said.

Despite the 10-point difference between the two margins for Hochul, the polls are relatively close on Blakeman’s level of support. Siena has the Republican at 41%, while Quinnipiac has him at 39%.

The bigger disagreement is over Hochul and voters who have not committed to either candidate.         

That is especially apparent among independents. Siena found Blakeman leading Hochul among independents 44% to 39%, with 17% undecided or supporting someone else. Quinnipiac, by contrast, found Hochul leading independents 51% to 45%, with only a small share not choosing either candidate.

The key question for Blakeman with Hochul clearly leading in both polls is how much ground can be made up. With ads on the airwaves and social media ramping up, Snow said improving name recognition offers a path.

“Independents are giving her an advantage now but there is more than a third who don’t know enough about him when you ask that favorability question. That gives him room to grow,” Snow said.

The two polls also differ on partisan breakdown. The Siena poll showed Hochul’s support relatively soft among Democrats at 81-11% with Blakeman winning Republicans 88% to 8%. Partisan loyalty was higher for both candidates in the Quinnipiac poll, with Hochul winning Democrats 89% to 6% and Blakeman carrying Republicans 90% to 8%.

That helps explain why two well-regarded polls conducted at roughly the same point in the campaign produced substantially different margins without completely contradicting each other.

Greenberg said Siena’s findings also point to turnout as an important factor in interpreting the race.

“It shows that this is going to be a campaign based on which side does a better job of driving their voters to the polls. We know this is a midterm election, turnout will be smaller than in a presidential election,” Greenberg said.

In 2022, Hochul led Zeldin by 17 points in a September Siena poll. That margin narrowed to 11 points in October before a single Quinnipiac poll showed Hochul only up by four points late in the month. Snow said that poll was seen as an outlier at the time but ended up being close to the final six point margin. After relatively consistent results across two months of Siena polls, this October’s survey will presumably answer whether that remains steady. Snow told Spectrum News 1 that Quinnipiac will release another poll before the election but didn’t specify when.

That could answer additional questions about Wednesday’s poll. 

In response, the Hochul campaign pointed to the Trump factor.

“Bruce Blakeman’s Donald Trump obsession is a problem for this state and for his campaign, and New Yorkers can see it,” Hochul campaign spokesperson Ryan Radulovacki said. “No one wants a Trump puppet in the governor’s mansion who will cut their healthcare, raise their costs, and let ICE trample their rights – they trust Governor Hochul’s record of investing in public safety, lowering crime, and putting money back in their pockets – and they know she’ll fight for their families, not Trump.”

While Blakeman capitalized on his performance in the Siena poll, releasing a statement before Quinnipiac came out and not responding to an updated request.

“All polls continue to show Kathy Hochul’s downward spiral and me closing the gap as New Yorkers learn more about my plan to cut income taxes by historic margins and slash electric bills in half,” he said. And let’s remember: at this point in the 2022 race, a Siena poll had Lee Zeldin trailing Kathy Hochul by 17 points. Today, our race is in single digits, with one-third of New Yorkers still needing to learn more about me.”

Siena’s polled 1,144 likely voters from Sept. 11-17 with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points while Quinnipiac surveyed 1,026 likely voters from Sept. 17-20.

The result also underscores why any single poll is better viewed as a snapshot rather than a definitive picture of the race, and Snow said looking at polling collectively as Election Day approaches can help provide a clearer picture of where voters stand.