Democrats enter the final weeks of the 2026 midterms with favorable tailwinds as voters sour on President Donald Trump, but polls suggest the party may not be matching its national momentum in New York, the state that experienced the nation’s largest rightward shift in 2024.
With less than four weeks until the November 3 midterm elections, Democrats are expanding their lead nationally and are working to expand the electoral battleground to compete in more conservative states like Alaska, Iowa, Kansas and Texas.
But two recent surveys have produced underwhelming results for Democrats in New York, long seen as a major progressive stronghold, raising questions about whether the “blue wave” will manifest itself in the Empire State. As Democrats expand their lead on the national generic ballot, that has not translated into gains in New York, with recent polls showing Democrats up between 11 and 13 points in the state.
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The polls could signal a worrying trend for New York Democrats. Former Vice President Kamala Harris won the state by fewer than 13 points in 2024, down from former President Joe Biden’s 23-point victory in 2020. No other state saw a larger jump to the right in the most recent presidential race.
The trend was driven by Trump’s inroads among Hispanic and Asian American voters, as well as more stagnant suburbs outside of New York City.
That rightward shift also showed up further down the ballot, with Democrats winning the generic congressional vote by 15 points, down from 24 points in 2020, according to SplitTicket.
Boris Heersink, a political science professor at Fordham University, told Newsweek that if Trump’s 2024 coalition lasted in New York, it could “produce an environment where a particularly appealing Republican could do well” in the state. But he also said that does not “seem to be the most likely outcome.”
“I don’t think the current polls suggest a long-term trend away from the Democrats. What I think is clear is that the era where Democrats were completely dominating New York in the 2010s is over,” he said.
New York Polls Show Democrats Lagging National Gains
Recent polling data suggest Democrats are struggling to rebuild their dominance in New York politics, even in a more favorable environment ahead of the midterm elections, though it could ultimately come down to how undecided voters break between now and November 3. These polls still give Democrats a statewide advantage.
Democrats led Republicans on the generic ballot by only 13 points, 55 percent to 42 percent, in a new Marist University poll of New York registered voters. Meanwhile, in the gubernatorial race, Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul led her Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman, the Nassau County executive, by only 11 points, 53 percent to 42 percent.
The poll surveyed 1,361 registered voters from October 1 to 4 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.
Just weeks earlier, a Siena University poll produced similarly concerning results for Democrats. It found Democrats leading the generic ballot by only 11 points, 51 percent to 40 percent, while Hochul was up only 9 points, 50 percent to 41 percent.
The poll surveyed 1,144 likely voters from September 11 to 17, 2026, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.
However, a recent Quinnipiac University poll was a bit better for Hochul, showing her up 19 points, 58 percent to 39 percent. It polled 1,026 likely voters from September 17 to 20 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.
Historically, New York has shifted against Republican presidents. In 2018, Democrats won the generic ballot by 31 points in New York, a shift from a 22-point win in 2016.
How New York Compares With National Polling
At the same time, Democrats are in a strong position on the generic ballot. RealClearPolitics gives Democrats a 7.8-point lead in their aggregate, while Nate Silver showed Democrats up 9 points as of Wednesday. That marks a notable shift from 2024, when Republicans won the generic ballot by 2.7 points.
Polling shifts have been driven by a decline in Trump’s approval rating. Historically, when the president is unpopular ahead of the midterms, his party tends to lose seats in the House and Senate.
Democrats have sought to make the midterms a referendum on Trump as he faces voter backlash over the economy, cost of living and high gas prices amid the Iran war.
But midterm shifts are not always even, and some polling suggests other Democratic states like Massachusetts and Oregon are also not seeing significant leftward trends this year. Meanwhile, races in states like Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio and Texas, which backed Trump by double digits in 2024, appear more competitive.
New York voters have a “long-standing and deep frustration” with state-level politics, which may help explain why polls show the state is closer than expected in the midterms, Grant Davis Reeher, a political science professor at Syracuse University, told Newsweek.
“Affordability here is just as likely to focus on the state’s high taxes and spending as on the price of gas and eggs,” he said. “That provides avenues for Republicans to make a case, at least, even in a very blue state. In addition, most of the Republicans that are left in office, or that are running, are more moderate than the typical Republican, and especially the MAGA Republican.”
What This Means for Key Midterm Races
Hochul remains the favorite to win reelection, as she has not trailed a single public poll. The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball both consider the race to be solid or safe for Democrats.
New York has some important congressional races. In New York’s 3rd District, Democratic Representative Tom Suozzi is facing a challenge from Republican State Assemblymember Mike LePetri. Democrats are also hoping to flip New York’s 17th District, a Harris-won seat held by GOP Representative Mike Lawler. Democrats are running Cait Conley in that race.
These are two seats that could determine whether Democrats or Republicans will control the House of Representatives after the midterms.
Reeher said he doubts that Democrats will lose any seats at the federal level in New York.
“At the state and local level, you might see some upsets, if local issues can combine with a lesser blue wave at the top of the ticket to produce the right formula,” Reeher said.
Ciro Riccardi, a spokesperson for Lawler’s campaign, pointed to Hochul as a vulnerability for New York Democrats.
“She is deeply underwater with independents and in the suburbs thanks to her policies: sanctuary laws that protect criminals, sky-high taxes, and non-stop utility bill increases approved by her PSC,” Riccardi said.
Conley’s “refusal to campaign publicly with Hochul tells you everything you need to know about Hochul’s impact on down ballot races,” he said.
In a statement to Newsweek, the LePetri campaign said that “all politics are local” and that Democrats in New York “no longer work for the people.”
“Taxin’ Tom Suozzi voted against the largest working families tax cut in history and voted to allow men in girls sports. Meanwhile Horrible Hochul is driving up utility costs and driving out businesses and young people. The last piece of the ‘Terrible Trifecta’ is Zohran ‘Commie’ Mamdani whose disastrous socialist policies are right here in NY-03 in northeast Queens and the DSA is pledging to bring more of it to Nassau County,” the statement reads.
A Hochul campaign spokesperson told Newsweek that the governor is “continuing to build momentum as we near Election Day.”
“Bruce Blakeman has spent his failing campaign tying himself to an unpopular Trump, saying high gas prices aren’t a ‘New York issue,’ the governor’s moratorium on data centers is ‘crazy,’ and that ICE has done a ‘very, very good job,’” the spokesperson said.
Newsweek also reached out to the Blakeman, Conley and Suozzi campaigns for comment.
Progressives Surge in New York City—Is That Alienating Moderates?
Despite Republicans making some inroads in the Empire State, New York City has become a progressive stronghold over the past few years, defined by Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s victory in the 2025 race against former Governor Andrew Cuomo and Republican Curtis Sliwa.
In 2026, progressives, including Democratic socialists, gained ground in New York. Candidates backed by the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), Claire Valdez and Darializa Avila-Chevalier, along with progressive Brad Lander, won Democratic primaries in House races.
Avila-Chevalier and Lander unseated more moderate incumbents, major victories for the left. The DSA also won major victories in local races, as well, and have become a power player in New York politics.
Some Democrats, however, have raised concerns that DSA’s rise could alienate more moderate Democrats and independents, even in cases where Democratic candidates are more moderate, such as Hochul, Suozzi or Conley.
Suozzi warned that there is “little support” for their ideas in remarks to Fox News Digital in August.
“Much like the Republicans have had to deal with the Freedom Caucus, the Democrats are going to have to deal with this group,” Suozzi told the outlet.
Joseph Viteritti, the Thomas Hunter professor of public policy at Hunter College, told Newsweek that Mamdani may “alienate some folks” in conservative areas of the state but that on the flip side, his affordability message could resonate and hurt Republicans.
“Trump remains a major liability for the GOP. Turnout will be a key factor: Republicans who won’t cross party lines may just stay home, while the affordability issue will motivate Democrats to come out. In the end, the Democrats will control both houses of the legislature and Hochul will be reelected,” he said.
Heersink said it is “very difficult” to know if the progressive surge is actually harming other Democrats.
“Moderate Democrats always have a tendency to blame any underperformance on people in their party pushing them to the left. There may very well be some voters who are traditionally Democrats who do not like Mamdani and what he represents,” he said. “But there’s also the potential counter-side that the DSA wing of the party is able to bring out younger voters.”
A plurality of New Yorkers, 43 percent, view DSA unfavorably, compared to just 29 percent who view it favorably, according to the Quinnipiac poll. Those numbers are even lower outside of the city. In the suburbs, 26 percent of voters view DSA favorably, compared with 23 percent upstate, the poll found.
What Happens Next
How New York votes in November, as well as in the 2028 election, will be watched as a critical gauge of the state’s political future. Key metrics to watch could include the outcome in suburban regions on Long Island and in the Hudson River Valley, as well as how Hispanic and Asian American neighborhoods in New York City vote.
As for New York’s political future, the state is unlikely to be competitive in 2028, Reeher said.
“I have a hard time imagining New York to be in serious play at the presidential level anytime soon,” he said.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jason Lemon, Sam Wilson, Gray R. Thomas.