LEONARD QUART | LETTER FROM NEW YORK

Gov. Kathy Hochul speaks during an Oct. 6 roundtable on data centers in Hopewell Junction, N.Y.
Michael M. Santiago — Getty Images

Several House races will be key for determining a congressional majority, but the governor’s race is the main event.

Election Day occurs in a little less than a month and, not to be alarmist, our democracy feels at stake. If the Democrats take the House of Representatives, it will act as a break on some of the Trump administration’s most destructive actions, and a semblance of democracy will be preserved.

In New York, the race for governor is seen as the most significant contest. Democratic incumbent Kathy Hochul seeks a full second term against a Donald Trump-backed Republican Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman. But all 26 congressional districts are on the ballot, with several rated among the nation’s most competitive, enough to help decide control of the House.

Congressional elections

The Democrats appear to have an advantage but must be wary of complacency. While New York always goes blue for the presidency and U.S. Senate, it is key for taking back the House majority. The Democrats gained House seats in 2024, so they must focus on protecting their new members and flipping another Republican-held seat.

Tom Suozzi, a moderate Democrat, won his seat in Nassau County in 2024 by three points and should win this time, but it’s not a sure thing. Laura Gillen, who also won her seat in 2024, represents other parts of Nassau County and voted to pass a Department of Homeland Security funding bill that included funding for U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement in May. Gillen votes more conservatively than the rest of the Democratic Party and should be able to win her seat more easily this time in a swing but relatively conservative district.

Cait Conley is running in the Hudson Valley swing district to take back the seat for the Democrats. A fourth-generation Hudson Valley native from a working-class family, she graduated from West Point and served 16 years in the U.S. Army with six overseas deployments including combat tours in Iraq and Afghanistan, earning three Bronze Stars. She is running against two-term Rep. Mike Lawler, who tries to make much of his few deviations from Trump, but in most cases toes the line. He is one of the most vulnerable Republicans in this cycle and wants us to believe he is something more than a Trump loyalist.

Almost every House member representing New York City is a Democrat except the one Republican member from Staten Island. I spent most of my work life on Staten Island teaching at a branch of City University of New York. Most of my students were products of conservative, Catholic, Republican working- and lower-middle-class homes, though many broke politically from their parents and were mostly progressive. New immigrants have moved in, but the area’s politics remain the same. So, the Staten Island district (which includes some of Southern Brooklyn) is represented by Nicole Malliotakis, who is running against a disengaged Democratic Party there. She is running less as a Trumpite and more as someone who serves the community and tries to find solutions to its problems. But she votes with Trump.

A unique member among NYC’s congressional delegation is Ritchie Torres, a three-term representative. Torres represents my old congressional district in the South Bronx, the poorest district in the country, and his seat is a safe one. Torres is Afro-Latin and gay. He grew up with a single mother who raised him along with his twin brother and sister in public housing, paying the bills with minimum wage jobs. Torres was on the City Council — the youngest elected member —  where he passed more than 40 pieces of legislation protecting affordable housing and tackling the opioid epidemic. Watching him on Youtube, he seems honest, authentic, close to his roots and deeply caring about his constituency. But as a liberal, there are anomalies in his political choices. He supported Andrew Cuomo for mayor instead of Zohran Mamdani, and though drawing back a bit, Torres has been a staunch supporter of Israel for many years. As recently as 2025, he called the free Palestine movement a “social contagion” and he has received a great deal of money from The American Israel Public Affairs Committee.

Still, he’s a pragmatic politician who maintains diverse alliances and is in step with his House district. In fact, recently he has made overtures to Mamdani, appearing virtually with the mayor for a recent event.

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The race for governor

The prime contest in the state is for governor. Hochul might not be the most inspiring or imaginative politician. She’s a moderate Democrat with a very different political vision than Mamdani, but they have made a necessary and strategic political alliance. Mamdani plans to actively campaign for Hochul, and polls show his endorsement will turn into greater support for her. Still her approval rating does not go beyond 50 percent, and in the polls, she is only nine points ahead of her opponent.

Hochul took power during the COVID epidemic when people were writing obituaries for the city and state, but both have rebounded under her leadership. Today, the situation is different: Crime is down, and employment and tourist rates have rallied. However, she still must wrestle with New Yorkers dealing with soaring energy and rental bills.

Her opponent, Blakeman, has the full backing of Trump, who offered his usual hollow stock praise: “He’s a friend of mine for a long time, a great political leader, a great politician.” Blakeman is running on a commitment to lower taxes and safe streets. He’s pushing the link between Hochul and Mamdani in a mailer sent to Westchester County voters titled “Say No to Socialism: Say No to Hochul/Mamdani.” Indulging in red-baiting is probably the best this Republican hack can do. Hochul doesn’t have to be a passionate progressive, but she’s the best we are going to get.