Most Broadway shows start elsewhere. Though as New Yorkers, it can be terrific when sometimes that somewhere is Off-Broadway.

A production opens in a smaller NY theater, and for Off-Broadway this means more than 99 seats. The reviews come in, audiences start talking, sharing, more talking; and suddenly something interesting happens. The show extends its run. Then it extends again. Performances start selling out, and the Commercial Theatre industry may begin paying attention.

Is this, or could this show be Broadway-bound?

Off-Broadway has a long history of being a launching pad for Broadway productions. But what makes producers and investors believe a show is ready for NY’s entertainment epicenter?

One of the first indicators is the demand.

When an Off-Broadway production announces multiple extensions, particularly when tickets are moving quickly, it can suggest that interest is growing beyond original expectations. Strong reviews may help, but great word of mouth and of course sustained ticket sales are even more telling.

Then there is the reputation of the Off-Broadway theater itself.

Institutions like The Public Theater and New York Theatre Workshop have very strong, established histories of developing productions that eventually reach Broadway. Their artistic credibility, industry relationships and loyal audiences can generate considerable attention.

But they aren’t the only ones spawning.

Independent commercial Off-Broadway productions can also be quite exciting. A show doesn’t necessarily need a cultural nonprofit institution to attract Broadway producers. Again, strong sales, enthusiastic, vocal grassroots audiences with several extended runs often get conversations started.

And those conversations can become very interesting.

Look at two examples currently making their mark on Broadway.

Buena Vista Social Club began at Atlantic Theater Company before transferring to the Gerald Schoenfeld Theatre. And Downstate, which played Off-Broadway at Playwrights Horizons, begins Broadway previews this October at the Booth Theatre.

Both demonstrate that Off-Broadway remains a significant part of Broadway’s development pipeline.

But here’s where the business gets complex.

A successful Off-Broadway production isn’t automatically a successful Broadway business model.

Moving a show to Broadway will mean raising substantially more capital. Investors need to believe the production is capable of steadily attracting larger paying audiences, to recoup.

Production and advertising budgets increase. Weekly operating expenses will be considerably higher.

And then there’s the theater.

Many transfers are not looking for a 1,500-seat house. Smaller commercial Broadway theaters like the Booth and Schoenfeld, each seating approximately 800-900, can be attractive options.

Smaller Broadway houses are great, while potentially preserving some of the intimacy that made the original production successful.

There’s also timing. Producers must consider theater availability, competing productions, seasonal demand and whether the excitement surrounding the original run can be sustained after Broadway opening night.

After all, sadly, buzz has a shelf life.

Off-Broadway provides an opportunity to establish a production’s identity, build an audience, attract investors and demonstrate its commercial potential. It is made in New York.

Multiple extensions, strong reviews and packed houses can open the door.

But raising the capital, securing the right theater, timing, and developing a sound business plan determine whether the show walks through it.

Off-Broadway may create the buzz. Broadway has to turn that buzz into Broadway business. 

Alex Tavis is a longtime working Film/TV/Theatre actor and independent theatre ticketing logistics partner since 2017. A lover of satisfied customers, sun, and passive income. He resides in Brooklyn.