The race for New York’s 21st Congressional District is a tight one, according to polls.
On Monday, Vice President JD Vance was in Rome, New York to campaign for Republican candidate Anthony Constantino.
Rome is the same place where Democratic candidate Blake Gendebien made his final pitch to voters over the weekend wrapping his “Harvest the Vote Tour.”
Rome is the largest city within the district.
“This is going to be a district to watch,” said Carl Calabrese, a Republican political strategist. “I think people on both sides of the aisle are going to be watching this as kind of a bellwether on how Congress may go.”
Some strategists believe despite New York’s 21st district being historically a GOP stronghold, the seat is vulnerable given the national landscape.
“The House is going to most likely go Democrat,” said Calabrese. “The question is, what districts are going to swing?”
A Siena University poll of likely voters released last month has Gendebien leading Constantino 46% to 42%.
“I’m self-funding to be nobody’s man but yours in Congress,” said Constantino following an interview after he cast his ballot in early voting. “It’s a unique thing to do. I’m going to fight for the people. I’m going to fight for everybody.”
Constantino, a businessman and CEO of Sticker Mule, which produces custom stickers, magnets, buttons and labels, is campaigning on an agenda that includes affordability, delivering fast internet and cell services and permanently securing the northern border.
“I want to fight for our families because they’re tired,” said Gendebien during an interview with Spectrum News 1 in October. “They’re tired of making the decision between food and fuel.”
Gendebien a second-generation dairy farmer and small business owner of Twin Mill Farms is campaigning on lowering costs, improving access to rural healthcare, and building a guest worker program that allows immigrants to help meet the needs of livestock farmers and food processors while also securing the northern border.
When asked what the likelihood is over Gendebien flipping the seat, Democratic strategist and former Democratic New York state Sen. David Carlucci said, “I think if any year were possible for a Democrat to flip the seat, it’s definitely this year. We see a national wave in terms of Democratic enthusiasm. We have an unpopular president.”
When it comes to President Trump’s approval rating, a new national poll found that 64% of people surveyed disapproved of his job performance.
Strategists from both sides of the aisle say it’s typically the party in power that loses seats, and right now, the odds are growing more difficult for Republicans to maintain control of the House of Representatives given they can only afford to lose a handful of seats.