New Yorkers turned out in unexpectedly high numbers across the state during the nine-day early voting period that concluded Sunday, and Democrats believe the high turnout reflects voter enthusiasm that will work to their advantage.
“We’re feeling very confident where those votes will go,” Gov. Kathy Hochul told reporters last week. “But as the leader of the Democratic party, this is only good news for us.”
The early vote totals this year were far higher than anticipated, especially when compared to the last midterm election in 2022.
Overall, 1,965,043 people cast their votes early across the state, a 67% increase over 2022. In New York City, 690,526 people voted early, up 60% from 2022.
And in the city, Democrats made up a disproportionate share of the early vote.
“Comparing this electorate to last year and especially the electorate in 2024 and 2022, it’s noticeably bluer,” political analyst Michael Lange said. “I believe between the Democratic party and the Working Families Party, about 76% of the voters who have turned out so far are registered with either of those parties, and that is quite high.”
Also notable, the early vote total in the city was only down 6% from last year’s hotly contested mayoral election, when then-candidate Zohran Mamdani drove a surge of young, first-time voters to the polls.
Democrats believe the numbers show their voters are motivated to send a message to President Donald Trump. But Republicans believe on Election Day, they’ll overcome any Democratic advantage in the early vote.
Voters “came out early where Democrats traditionally do best,” said Jeffrey Wice, a professor at New York Law School and an expert on voting rights. “So the bellwether seems to be good for the Democrats. But the Republicans also argue that Republians like to vote in person on Election Day.”
Voters may also have simply become more comfortable with early voting, which took effect in New York in 2019.
Wice said some voters may have also been fearful of federal interference on Election Day.
“It shows that people are concerned about what the Trump administration, what the federal government might spring on voters tomorrow,” he said. “And we’re hoping for a very orderly, regular election process. But people didn’t want to leave anything to chance.”
“We have a police officer at every single one of our 1,215 sites,” said Vincent Ignizio, deputy executive director of the city’s Board of Elections. “They are safe. They are secure. It is a bipartisan team. Do not be afraid to come out and cast your vote. It is safe. It is free and fair for all New York City residents who are eligible to vote.”