Despite New York’s generational expansion of the transmission system, more work needs to be done to ensure long term reliability. In conversations with utility companies and other entities, as well as research into studies and reports, some future concerns about the grid were identified, and are summarized below.

NYISO Concerns

The NYISO highlights several concerns throughout its reports. The Reliability Needs Assessment and the System & Resource Outlook both act as ​“state of the grid” reports, identifying current and potential future needs in the system, relating to demand, transmission, and system resources.

The 2024 RNA identified reliability needs within Zone J, or New York City, starting summer 2025. This means that the resource margins (supply and demand) become so slim that there is a high possibility of outages. This margin slims even further where there would be no surplus power by 2034 if no new generators were to come online. The RNA forecasts that Zone J will be deficient in 2033 by 17 MW for one hour and increase to nearly 100 MW for three hours by the following year during the summer peak. The reliability need is caused by a combination of increased forecasted demand both from large loads and electrification, retirements of gas plants, and unavailability of winter natural gas used for heating. It recommends new generation, retention of planned retirements, transmission expansion, energy efficiency, and demand response as possible pathways that can be used to improve system reliability. System wide, the RNA predicts that the loss of load expectation will increase close to 0.1 event-days per year by 2034, with no surplus power remaining, and that there may be observed transmission facilities overloads statewide. The RNA also discusses the influx of new large loads – the NYISO currently has 19 large load projects looking to interconnect for a combined total of over 3 GW These large loads include data centers and the Micron NY Semiconductor manufacturing plant. November 19, 2024. The draft of the 2025 RNA (set to be finalized late 2025) revises some of those predictions while also offering some additional information.

According to the updated RNA, one-quarter of the state’s total generating capacity is fossil generation older than 50 years. Despite this, the 2025-2034 Comprehensive Reliability Plan identifies no reliability needs, with the Zone J reliability need mentioned in the 2024 RNA has been resolved through updated forecasting of the baseline demand forecast. In the draft RNA, NYISO acknowledges the limitations of evaluating system reliability with a single forecast, as it does to reflect that range of possible combinations of growing demand and system conditions. According to the 2025 Power Trends report, demand could increase by an additional 4 GW by 2030 and that New York will shift from a summer peaking system to a winter peaking system due to electrification. The updated RNA shows that large load project demand increases to over 10 GW to be in service by 2031, with the average project size nearing 300 MW.

The System & Resource Outlook has several findings that point to a decreasing reliability in the grid over the next few decades. One such finding is that electric energy consumption is expected to increase 50-90% by 2045, mostly driven by building and vehicle electrification and siting of large loads. Large loads can also worsen existing constraints if sited near congested lines. To meet the increasing demand, the Outlook found that the state will require three times the amount of generation that it currently has, up to 130 GW by 2042, and to meet that demand the state must coordinate new generator additions with generator retirements.

The outlook also mentions that when building new generators, particularly renewables, transmission expansion must be completed with the generators or the system could risk inefficiency. CHPE will help meet some of these short term needs, but as our system switches from a summer peaking system to a winter peaking system, caused by building electrification, there is some concern that CHPE may not be able to provide as much power to New York, instead providing it to its home country of Canada. As the grid switches to renewable resources and supply margins decrease, interregional transmission of energy will become more complex and difficult – but at the same time, more valuable since grid operators can take advantage of a greater diversity of resources. This will require New York to have even more back up power, as it may not be available in other regions. Overall, new, distributed energy resources such as wind and solar must be deployed along with storage. At the same time, the transmission system must be expanded and dynamic reactive power support (STATCOM) along with other Grid Enhancing Technologies must be installed.

In the NYISO’s most recent Short-Term Assessment of Reliability (STAR) for the 3rd Quarter of 2025, the ISO identified several reliability needs through 2030, with significant reliability concerns starting summer 2026. The identified reliability needs stem from a rise in forecasted peak power demand, planned transmission upgrades, and changes to the generation mix. This reliability need differs from the one brought up in the RNA as it focuses more on short-term reliability and factors in potential delays for planned projects. Generator deactivations in New York City and Long Island can potentially significantly impact short-term reliability, particularly for those regions as well as the Lower Hudson Valley. Planned projects, including the CHPE line (in service May 2026), Empire Wind (in service July 2027), Sunrise Wind (in service July 2027), and the Propel NY Transmission project (in service May 2030) are critical to remediating this reliability need and any delay or cancellation of these projects could have drastic impacts on the state of New York’s grid.

New York has one of the oldest fleets of steam turbines in the country, with the average age of a turbine in New York city being around 65 years old – this in itself poses a potential future reliability need. As aging generator units retire and other fossil fuel power plants retire due to the NYSDEC Peaker Rule, new forms of generation such as offshore wind are critical. Reliability needs are most seen near the Narrows (Staten Island), Gowanus (Brooklyn), and Far Rockaway (Queen) service areas, with both generator and transmission needs. While planned projects will fill the short term reliability needs, the rising demand will force the state to continue to invest in the transmission system as well as continue to build new, renewable energy to prevent reliability margins from slipping once again.

The anticipated load growth is unprecedented. The NYISO’s annual long term load forecast predicts that in 2025, New York will need 151,720 GWh in a low demand scenario, 152,400 GWh in a baseline demand scenario, and 153,170 GWh in a high demand scenario. By 2055, those numbers grow to 209,970 GWh, 244,100 GWh, and 353,000 GWh respectively, accounting for a 1.28%, 2.01%, and 4.35% average annual growth – an unprecedented amount of year over year growth.

Con Edison

Con Edison shares similar concerns for the grid as the NYISO – decreased supply, increased demand, and extreme weather as well as energy affordability for its customers. Con Edison, much like other utilities, attempts to balance investment needs with customer affordability, and has a number of assistance programs to help facilitate those goals.

Con Edison is forecasting that their peak load will double over the next 25 years, brought on in part due to electrification of buildings and vehicles. The electrification of heating in particular will likely push the utility to become a winter peaking utility by 2044. This shift is not unprecedented, but has not happened in over 50 years. When air conditioning was invented and becoming commonplace between the 1950s and 1970s, the utility experienced a shift from a winter (Christmas Eve) peaking system to a summer peaking system. In response, the utility moved to a system that could tolerate two failures and still supply load to the system. The system has changed before and it will change again.

Another major concern is commonplace across the country – deactivation of existing generation. The NYISO predicts that there may be a reliability need in New York City by 2033 due to the lack of supply. CHPE and Empire Wind will fill some of that reliability need, but the loss of future offshore wind projects creates uncertainty for the future. That planned supply will have to be made up elsewhere.

Extreme weather, particularly heatwaves, are an increasingly greater concern. In June 2025, New York City was hit with an intense heat wave, with the heat index hitting 108 degrees in some parts of the city, a record high. The system saw some equipment failures, and a (very) small portion of customers in Brooklyn lost power. The existing infrastructure was not built to withstand a heat index so high, leading to some overloading. Utilities have investment levels that are set to accommodate the maximum amount of load on the hottest projected days, and over building that is costly to ratepayers – it is difficult to balance affordability and reliability when it comes to extreme heat.Con Edison is committed to working with policymakers to keep energy affordable for all, especially for its most vulnerable customers. Two areas of advocacy the utility is prioritizing are 1) working with the State to continue to fund and expand utility Energy Affordability Programs (EAP) and 2) raising awareness on the impact of New York City’s property taxes on customer utility bills. Con Edison is advocating for changes to that tax structure to deliver immediate and impactful bill relief to millions of utility customers.

As property taxes on energy infrastructure are an operational cost for utilities, they are incorporated in the delivery costs. In New York City, energy infrastructure has its own property tax class (Class 3), which represents a high share of the total citywide tax revenue compared to its market value (6% of total revenue compared to 3% market value). These costs are passed through to ratepayers.

Con Edison is currently going through a rate case proceeding with the Department of Public Service, where it is seeking an increase in annual delivery revenues equal to 18% of base delivery revenue or 11.4% increase in total revenue. This equates to a 13.4% increase on the total bill for customers using 600 kWh per month. The primary drives are property taxes, new infrastructure investment, and operating expenses. This, however, was updated in a joint proposal filed November 6, 2025 which updated to a total revenue increase of 2.8% for electric and 2.0% for gas, which equates to an increase of about 3.5% for electric customers. This reflects the negotiation process between Con Edison and the NYSDPS as well as public input and a hearing on the joint proposal is scheduled for early December.

Developer Concerns

Developers of electricity infrastructure see similar issues that utilities and the NYISO are seeing – more generation is needed to meet supply and the aging grid is rising costs and could pose a significant reliability issue in the future.

To meet the rise in demand, new sources of power generation will be needed. Right now, the grid is functioning as it should be, but as demand increases, reliability may be compromised. The state has ambitious goals for manufacturing and AI, which will bring economic development, but that comes at a cost when no new generation and transmission infrastructure is added. That is further compounded by the age of the grid. As previously mentioned, most of the grid infrastructure was built over 40 years ago, and New York did not start working on major grid projects until 2018. Developers are working with the state and utility companies to build out the necessary transmission infrastructure, but face significant hurdles.

There are large regulatory barriers needed to get through before a project starts construction, including siting and permitting, including the Article VII process. Outside of regulatory requirements, there are necessary safety requirements from NERC that need to be met. There is also significant local opposition to new transmission projects, often stemming from misinformation or disinformation, as well as NIMBYism. There is also a hesitance from consumers to build transmission projects–new projects are paid for by ratepayers, and with high energy and transmission costs already, it can be difficult to convince people a project is worth the cost. Despite this, new transmission projects are necessary to avoid future brown outs and black outs, and investing in transmission now will reduce overall costs in the future.