The road to the U.S. House of Representatives majority runs right through New York state.
According to the Cook Political Report, there is one highly competitive seat in New York in 2026 — the seat Democratic Rep. Laura Gillen holds in New York’s 4th Congressional District on Long Island. It’s considered a “tossup” race by Cook, an independent, non-partisan analyst of political campaigns.
Under the umbrella of competitive races, Cook labels those on the safer end of the spectrum “likely”; the seats that are less safe are labeled “lean.”
There are two seats that “lean Democrat” in New York, according to Cook. Those include the seat Democratic Rep. Josh Riley holds in the 19th Congressional District in Central New York, and the seat Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi holds in the 3rd District on Long Island.
On the Republican side of the ledger, the seat held by Rep. Mike Lawler in the Hudson Valley’s 17th District is one that Cook says “leans Republican.”
New York state’s other congressional districts are deemed either safe or “likely.”
But there is a big question mark surrounding all the state’s congressional races. There is a possibility of mid-decade redistricting. While there is currently a prohibition on redrawing congressional lines mid-decade in New York, there is legislation addressing the issue that could be considered by the Legislature during the upcoming session which begins in January.
Additionally, there was a lawsuit filed by an election law firm contending that the state’s 11th Congressional District on Staten Island, a seat currently held by Republican Rep. Nicole Malliotakis, is drawn in a way that disenfranchises Black and Latino voters.
If the redistricting legislation passes, and if the lawsuit gains traction, New York could dive, once again, into the redistricting fray.
Additionally, all of these congressional races may be influenced by voters’ perceptions of two party leaders: President Donald Trump and New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani.
Larry Levy, executive dean of the National Center for Suburban Studies at Hofstra University, sat down to discuss the 2026 political landscape with Capital Tonight host Susan Arbetter.