The NFL playoff picture is more clear after a rollercoaster Week 16.

In the early window, the main game that had playoff implications involved the NFC South — with the winner taking control.

The late window had two important matchups, but upsets happening in both. The race for the No. 1 seed in the AFC has tightened, while last season’s NFC top seed might not even make the playoffs this time.

Let’s analyze the results from Sunday with winners and losers:

WINNER: Chargers do business vs. Cowboys

One team is gaining momentum for the playoffs. The other was eliminated on Saturday before they took the field. There was only going to be one outcome.

The Los Angeles Chargers easily topped the Dallas Cowboys 34-17 at AT&T Stadium, as Justin Herbert stood out with 300 passing yards and three total touchdowns (2 passing, 1 rush) on 23 of 29 completions.

Justin Herbert generated +23.9 EPA across his 33 dropbacks against Dallas, the 2nd-most by any quarterback in a game this season and his 2nd-most of his career.

Herbert completed 9 of 11 passes under pressure for 108 yards and a touchdown and was not sacked.#LACvsDAL | #BoltUp pic.twitter.com/pKBmC2I67Q

— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) December 21, 2025

Los Angeles is now 11-4 with improved hopes of a better playoff run than last season, while Dallas is down to 6-8-1.

LOSER: Jaxson Dart underwhelms vs. Minnesota

In a battle of two already-eliminated teams, the New York Giants fell at home to the Minnesota Vikings 16-13.

JJ McCarthy didn’t have a clean game before exiting due to an injury, as Max Brosmer saw out the remaining time. McCarthy threw for 108 yards and a pick on 9 of 14 completions, with Justin Jefferson seeing a healthier 85 receiving yards.

But Jaxson Dart fared much worse, completing just 7 of 13 passes for 33 yards and a pick. What started off as a promising rookie season has turned into a brutal stretch for the Ole Miss product. The Giants are now 2-13, staying atop the NFL draft order.

WINNER: Joe Burrow routs Dolphins

In another battle of two eliminated teams, this time in the AFC, it was the Cincinnati Bengals that easily routed the Miami Dolphins amid a QB change for the latter.

It was a close game until the third quarter, when the Bengals outscored Miami 21-0 en route to a 45-21 final score. Joe Burrow threw for 309 yards and four touchdowns on 25 of 32 completions despite another injury-riddled campaign.

For Miami, rookie Quinn Ewers got the nod over Tua Tagovailoa. Ewers threw for 260 yards and two picks on 20 of 30 completions in his first start.

LOSER: Baker Mayfield, Bucs drop key game to Panthers

Moving to a more important game, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were at the Carolina Panthers in a battle for the NFC South lead. A narrow contest came down to Baker Mayfield leading a potential game-winning drive, but he threw a poor pick that sealed the 23-20 score.

Carolina is now 8-7 and has the lead, though the two teams will meet again in Tampa Bay in Week 18. Bryce Young threw 191 yards and two touchdowns on 21 of 32 completions, while Mayfield struggled with 145 yards, one touchdown and the aforementioned pick on 18 of 26 completions.

WINNER: Tyler Shough continues momentum

The New Orleans Saints — right or wrong — are picking up steam toward the end of the season. Rookie Tyler Shough continued his momentum in a dominant 29-6 home win over the New York Jets.

Shough threw 308 yards and a touchdown on 32 of 49 completions, a little more pass attempts than ideal. But with a nonexistent running game, New Orleans let the 26-year-old rook sling the ball. There’s nothing else to lose at this stage.

Shough’s overall ceiling is still a bit unclear, but it’s clear he’s worth giving more reps to as QB1 — for at least another season.

LOSER: Chiefs lose another QB

Last week, the Kansas City Chiefs lost Patrick Mahomes to an ACL tear on the same day their lengthy playoff streak finally concluded. This week, backup Gardner Minshew went down early with a potential torn ACL, as 28-year-old Chris Oladokun played the rest of the game.

Kansas City fell at the Tennessee Titans 26-9, dropping to 6-9 on the season. But that may benefit the team in terms of a better draft selection. Tennessee is 3-12, moving slightly away from the No. 1 pick battle.

WINNER: Josh Allen, Bills survive in Cleveland

The Buffalo Bills have endured many close games lately, but got the job done once again in Cleveland. With Josh Allen playing through an injury, James Cook helped push his team through with a 23-20 victory to go to 11-4.

Shedeur Sanders had a pinky finger issue, but stuck through it en route to 157 passing yards, one touchdown and two picks on 20 of 29 completions. Myles Garrett recorded half a sack, inching closer to the single-season record with two games left. Cleveland is 3-12.

LOSER: Broncos drop key conference game at home

The Jacksonville Jaguars were at the Denver Broncos in a key AFC game with the No. 1 seed up for grabs. In a rather unexpected ending, Jacksonville defeated Denver 34-20 to reach an 11-4 record as Denver fell to 12-3. With the New England Patriots also in the mix at 11-3, the race for the top seed may very well come down to Week 18.

Trevor Lawrence ended the game shaky, but shined for most of it with 279 passing yards and three touchdowns on 23 of 36 completions.

In today’s win, @Trevorlawrence completed 23-of-36 passes for 279 yards and three touchdowns to pair with 20 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown.

Lawrence is just the third player in NFL history to have at least 275 passing yards, three passing touchdowns and one rushing… pic.twitter.com/RdWPDVD6FB

— JaguarsPR (@JaguarsPR) December 22, 2025

Bo Nix couldn’t spark another late comeback, throwing for 352 yards, one touchdown and a pick on 28 of 47 completions. It could also be a predictor of what happens in a possible playoff contest, with the Jaguars unfazed by Denver’s atmosphere in this one.

WINNER: Bijan does Bijan things

Not much was on the line when the Atlanta Falcons traveled to the Arizona Cardinals, except for the former trying to improve their first-round pick owned by the LA Rams.

Atlanta got the win to help, going to 6-9 with the 26-19 victory. Bijan Robinson shined with his dual-threat ability, rushing for 76 yards on 16 carries while leading his team with 92 receiving yards and a score on seven catches.

Arizona is 3-12 with Jacoby Brissett still under center.

LOSER: Texans survive Raiders at home

The Houston Texans have generated some hype lately thanks to their elite defense, but this week may have tempered things. Houston, at home, just got past the lowly Las Vegas Raiders 23-21.

C.J. Stroud threw for 187 yards and a touchdown to Dalton Schultz on 23 of 35 completions, while Geno Smith had an encouraging game against Houston’s defense despite the loss.

Ashton Jeanty delivered a strong rushing game with 128 yards on 24 carries and a score amid a rough rookie season behind a poor offensive line. Las Vegas is 2-13 while Houston improved to 10-5.

WINNER: Steelers earn huge win at Detroit

A controversial ending will dominate the headlines, but the Pittsburgh Steelers earned a huge road win at the Detroit Lions. It looked like Pittsburgh would’ve blown its lead in the closing seconds as penalties helped Detroit move up the field, but the Steelers held strong on a fourth-and-goal stand.

Here’s the final call:

Aaron Rodgers threw 266 yards and a touchdown on 27 of 41 completions, while Jaylen Warren shined on the ground with 143 yards on 14 carries and two scores. Pittsburgh is 9-7 and a step closer to winning the AFC North.

Detroit, despite Jared Goff throwing three touchdowns on 365 passing yards, fell to 8-7 and have just a 16% chance at making the playoffs. It’s a stunning drop from last season.

Here are five things to know about Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff.