CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten declared the New York City mayoral race is “pretty much over” following Thursday’s debate unless Andrew Cuomo pulls off something “historically unprecedented.”
Enten joined CNN anchor Kate Bolduan on Thursday morning following a fiery mayoral debate between Democrat Zohran Mamdani, Cuomo, and Republican Curtis Sliwa to break down where the numbers stand with just a couple weeks in the race left. According to Enten, Cuomo will need to “become Teddy Roosevelt” overnight if he has any hope of closing in on Mamdani’s lead.
Mamdani’s September lead of 15 points is now at 18 points, according to Enten’s aggregate polling. In September, Mamdani was leading the three major candidates with 45%. Cuomo followed with 29% support and Sliwa came in last with 17%. Current polling now shows Mamdani at 49%, Cuomo at 31%, and Sliwa at 15%.
“The bottom line is this: Andrew Cuomo needs something very big to change at this particular point, unless of course he becomes Teddy Roosevelt overnight, because if something doesn’t change over the final two and a half weeks of this campaign, this race is pretty much over,” Enten told Bolduan.
To highlight what a massive comeback that would need to be for Cuomo, Enten averaged out the largest New York City mayoral final polling average error from surveys conducted in the last 21 days of mayoral elections going back to 1989. The average “error” was 11%. Mamdani’s current lead over Cuomo is 18%.
“So if Andrew Cuomo is going to come back and win, either something like Curtis Sliwa has to drop out of the race, or you need a polling miss that is nearly twice as large as the largest miss on record,” Enten said. “So you’re going to probably need something historically unprecedented for Andrew Cuommo to win this race if the polling average holds through election day.”
Watch above via CNN.
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