Alex Hunter breaks down his analysis, prediction and pick for tonight’s matchup between the Warriors and the Nets.
The Nets are hosting the Warriors on Monday. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Golden State is favored by 6.5 points and this game carries a total of 225.5 points.
Below, I break down the matchup and provide a pick for the game.
Warriors vs. Nets preview, prediction
Its been a very up-and-down season for the 16-16 Warriors, who rank 10th in net rating. The club is coming off a 141-127 overtime loss to the Raptors in Toronto yesterday, which comes after Golden State had won three games in a row at home. While the Warriors are great defensively, ranking third in defensive rating this season, they have struggled on offense, ranking 21st in offensive rating.
Stephen Curry and Jimmy Butler are doing everything they can, averaging 28.9 and 19.6 PPG, respectively, but Golden State severely lacks scoring threats after these two veterans, with no other player averaging more than 12 PPG. After inking a two-year, $48.5 million extension with the Warriors this summer, Jonathan Kuminga was supposed to be one of the team’s most reliable scorers, but the former lottery pick is only averaging 11.8 PPG and he has been in-and-out of Golden State’s rotation all season. Kuminga has been a DNP CD for three straight games and its hard to blame Steve Kerr for this decision, as Kuminga ranks second-to-last in plus/minus for the Warriors and the team has been notably better both offensively and defensively with him off the floor.
A secondary player needs to step up on offense for Golden State if the team wants to be a legitimate threat in the stacked Western Conference and tonight’s matchup vs. the Nets is likely to be more difficult than it appears on paper for the Warriors. This season, Golden State is just 3-3 when playing it’s second game in two nights and the team is just 6-12 on the road. Brooklyn is 10-19 for the season, but the team is playing it’s best basketball of the season right now.
The Nets have won three in a row and are coming off road wins over the 76ers and Timberwolves. For the month of December, Brooklyn is 7-3 and it ranks third in net rating. The key to the Nets’ success has been their defense, as they are leading NBA in defensive rating by a solid margin this month. Offensively, Michael Porter Jr. is having a career season as Brooklyn’s top option, averaging 25.8 PPG on 49% shooting. Cam Thomas also just returned from a 20-game absence due to a hamstring injury in this past Friday’s 17-point win over Minnesota and the ball dominant guard went nuts for 30 points in just 19.5 minutes off the bench.
While this was an impressive outing by Thomas, the truth is, his absence attributed to Porter Jr. breaking out and the Nets becoming elite defensively. The team’s net rating is 5.6 points worse with Thomas on the floor this season and while he is likely to remain limited tonight, there are concerns that when Thomas is fully healthy again, that Brooklyn could start reverting back to it’s losing ways.
Warriors vs. Nets pick, best bet
The Warriors are the better overall team than the Nets, but Golden State’s road woes this season are real and the team playing just yesterday is worrisome, as Brooklyn conversely hasn’t played since last Friday.
At an attractive +185 ML price, I like backing the Nets for the upset here, but if that is too bold for you, Brooklyn +6.5 is a safe play.